Nairobi United vs Bandari Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Nairobi United vs Bandari preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture, Nairobi United has a 42% chance to win against Bandari, who has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 18% probability. Nairobi United's expected goals stand at 1.03, while Bandari's is lower at 0.66.

However, the match could see different outcomes if either team improves their recent form. Nairobi United has drawn three of their last five matches, while Bandari has only one win in their last five. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals are at 24%, and both teams to score is at 32%, indicating a lower likelihood of high-scoring action.

Nairobi United vs Bandari: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nairobi United	Draw	Bandari
Model	42%	36%	22%
Market	—	—	—
Published	42%	36%	22%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.03 vs 0.66.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Nairobi United and Bandari expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.03Nairobi United

0.66Bandari

Total expected goals: 1.68
Attack rating (Nairobi United / Bandari): 1.24 / 0.60
Defence rating (Nairobi United / Bandari): 1.14 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nairobi United vs Bandari score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 19.9% 11.0% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 1 17.8% 13.8% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 2 9.8% 6.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 3 3.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Nairobi United goals. Columns: Bandari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nairobi United vs Bandari goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%

Over 1.5 51%

Over 2.5 24%

Over 3.5 9%

Both teams to score: 32%
No goals (0–0): 20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nairobi United vs Bandari

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nairobi United	42%	2.36
	Draw	36%	2.79
	Bandari	22%	4.59
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	24%	4.20
	Under 2.5	76%	1.31
Both teams to score	Yes	32%	3.11
	No	68%	1.47
Double chance	1X (Nairobi United or draw)	78%	1.28
	12 (either side)	64%	1.56
	X2 (draw or Bandari)	58%	1.73
Handicap -1	Nairobi United win by 2+	17%	5.77
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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