GOR Mahia vs KCB Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

GOR Mahia vs KCB preview

GOR Mahia faces KCB with a 35% chance for each team to win, while a draw sits at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which reflects the close nature of the match. GOR Mahia's expected goals are 1.18, while KCB's are slightly higher at 1.19.

Both teams to score has a probability of 49%, indicating a good chance for goals from both sides. However, GOR Mahia's recent form shows 4 wins followed by 2 losses, while KCB has 4 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 6 matches. This recent performance could influence the outcome, potentially making the predicted scoreline less accurate.

GOR Mahia vs KCB: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	GOR Mahia	Draw	KCB
Model	35%	31%	35%
Market	—	—	—
Published	35%	31%	35%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

GOR Mahia and KCB expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18GOR Mahia

1.19KCB

Total expected goals: 2.37
Attack rating (GOR Mahia / KCB): 1.07 / 1.28
Defence rating (GOR Mahia / KCB): 0.96 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

GOR Mahia vs KCB score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.7% 9.8% 6.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1 9.8% 14.4% 7.8% 3.1% 1.2% 2 6.5% 7.8% 4.6% 1.8% 0.7% 3 2.6% 3.1% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: GOR Mahia goals. Columns: KCB goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

GOR Mahia vs KCB goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 70%

Over 2.5 42%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for GOR Mahia vs KCB

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	GOR Mahia	35%	2.88
	Draw	31%	3.28
	KCB	35%	2.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42%	2.37
	Under 2.5	58%	1.73
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.02
	No	51%	1.98
Double chance	1X (GOR Mahia or draw)	65%	1.53
	12 (either side)	69%	1.44
	X2 (draw or KCB)	65%	1.53
Handicap -1	KCB win by 2+	15%	6.58
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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