KCB vs APS Bomet Prediction & Betting Tips 06/11/2026

KCB vs APS Bomet preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between KCB and APS Bomet, the 1X2 probabilities show KCB at 20%, a draw at 32%, and APS Bomet at 48%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, which occurs at a 16% probability.

KCB's expected goals stand at 0.73, while APS Bomet's are at 1.25. This discrepancy suggests that KCB may struggle to find the net. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 32%, and both teams to score is at 38%. This indicates a low-scoring game could be on the cards, but any unexpected performance from KCB could change the outcome.

KCB vs APS Bomet: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	KCB	Draw	APS Bomet
Model	20%	32%	48%
Market	—	—	—
Published	20%	32%	48%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.73.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

KCB and APS Bomet expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.73KCB

1.25APS Bomet

Total expected goals: 1.98
Attack rating (KCB / APS Bomet): 1.28 / 1.21
Defence rating (KCB / APS Bomet): 1.07 / 0.55

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

KCB vs APS Bomet score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.0% 16.0% 10.8% 4.5% 1.9% 1 8.8% 13.9% 7.9% 3.3% 1.4% 2 3.7% 4.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 3 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: KCB goals. Columns: APS Bomet goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

KCB vs APS Bomet goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 60%

Over 2.5 32%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for KCB vs APS Bomet

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	KCB	20%	4.90
	Draw	32%	3.12
	APS Bomet	48%	2.10
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32%	3.14
	Under 2.5	68%	1.47
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.62
	No	62%	1.62
Double chance	1X (KCB or draw)	52%	1.91
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or APS Bomet)	80%	1.26
Handicap -1	APS Bomet win by 2+	22%	4.48
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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