3K vs AFC Leopards Prediction & Betting Tips 07/11/2026

3K vs AFC Leopards preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between 3K and AFC Leopards, the 1X2 probabilities show AFC Leopards at 42%, while 3K sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, which has a 14% chance of occurring.

Both teams to score stands at 42%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 35%. 3K has an expected goals figure of 0.88, compared to AFC Leopards' 1.21. The recent form for 3K includes one win and three draws, while AFC Leopards has two draws and one win in their last five matches. These factors could lead to different outcomes than anticipated.

3K vs AFC Leopards: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	3K	Draw	AFC Leopards
Model	26%	32%	42%
Market	—	—	—
Published	26%	32%	42%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.88.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

3K and AFC Leopards expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.883K

1.21AFC Leopards

Total expected goals: 2.09
Attack rating (3K / AFC Leopards): 1.08 / 0.93
Defence rating (3K / AFC Leopards): 1.36 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

3K vs AFC Leopards score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.7% 13.6% 9.0% 3.6% 1.4% 1 9.6% 14.5% 8.0% 3.2% 1.3% 2 4.8% 5.8% 3.5% 1.4% 0.6% 3 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: 3K goals. Columns: AFC Leopards goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

3K vs AFC Leopards goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 35%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for 3K vs AFC Leopards

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	3K	26%	3.90
	Draw	32%	3.11
	AFC Leopards	42%	2.37
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35%	2.88
	Under 2.5	65%	1.53
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.36
	No	58%	1.74
Double chance	1X (3K or draw)	58%	1.73
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or AFC Leopards)	74%	1.34
Handicap -1	AFC Leopards win by 2+	19%	5.23
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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