Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth Prediction & Betting Tips 07/11/2026

Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth preview

Mara Sugar faces Migori Youth with 32% chances to win for Mara Sugar and 27% for Migori Youth, while a draw stands at 41%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 26% probability. Both teams to score is at 26%, suggesting a low-scoring match.

Mara Sugar's expected goals are 0.74, while Migori Youth's are slightly lower at 0.65. The recent form shows Mara Sugar with three draws and two losses, while Migori Youth has four consecutive draws. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome. If either team can convert their chances, it could lead to a different result than predicted.

Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mara Sugar	Draw	Migori Youth
Model	32%	41%	27%
Market	—	—	—
Published	32%	41%	27%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mara Sugar and Migori Youth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.74Mara Sugar

0.65Migori Youth

Total expected goals: 1.39
Attack rating (Mara Sugar / Migori Youth): 0.82 / 0.88
Defence rating (Mara Sugar / Migori Youth): 0.77 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 26.1% 15.0% 5.3% 1.1% 0.2% 1 17.2% 13.2% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 2 6.8% 4.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 3 1.7% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Mara Sugar goals. Columns: Migori Youth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 74%

Over 1.5 42%

Over 2.5 16%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 26%
No goals (0–0): 26%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mara Sugar vs Migori Youth

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mara Sugar	32%	3.10
	Draw	41%	2.45
	Migori Youth	27%	3.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	16%	6.11
	Under 2.5	84%	1.20
Both teams to score	Yes	26%	3.82
	No	74%	1.35
Double chance	1X (Mara Sugar or draw)	73%	1.37
	12 (either side)	59%	1.69
	X2 (draw or Migori Youth)	68%	1.48
Handicap -1	Mara Sugar win by 2+	10%	9.78
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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