Murang'a SEAL vs Ulinzi Stars Prediction & Betting Tips 08/11/2026

Murang'a SEAL vs Ulinzi Stars preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Murang'a SEAL and Ulinzi Stars, the 1X2 probabilities show Murang'a SEAL at 41%, Ulinzi Stars at 32%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Murang'a SEAL has an expected goals total of 1.55, while Ulinzi Stars sits at 1.34.

Both teams to score stands at 59%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 55%. Recent form indicates Murang'a SEAL has won 4 of their last 6 matches, whereas Ulinzi Stars has only 2 wins in the same period. This discrepancy in form could impact the outcome, as Ulinzi Stars has won their last head-to-head encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Murang'a SEAL vs Ulinzi Stars: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Murang'a SEAL	Draw	Ulinzi Stars
Model	41%	27%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	27%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Murang'a SEAL and Ulinzi Stars expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Murang'a SEAL

1.34Ulinzi Stars

Total expected goals: 2.89
Attack rating (Murang'a SEAL / Ulinzi Stars): 1.63 / 0.90
Defence rating (Murang'a SEAL / Ulinzi Stars): 1.56 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Murang'a SEAL vs Ulinzi Stars score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 6.3% 5.0% 2.2% 1.0% 1 7.4% 12.7% 7.8% 3.5% 1.6% 2 6.6% 8.9% 6.0% 2.7% 1.2% 3 3.4% 4.6% 3.1% 1.4% 0.6% 4+ 1.9% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Murang'a SEAL goals. Columns: Ulinzi Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Murang'a SEAL vs Ulinzi Stars goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 80%

Over 2.5 55%

Over 3.5 33%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Murang'a SEAL vs Ulinzi Stars

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Murang'a SEAL	41%	2.44
	Draw	27%	3.71
	Ulinzi Stars	32%	3.13
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55%	1.81
	Under 2.5	45%	2.23
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.68
	No	41%	2.46
Double chance	1X (Murang'a SEAL or draw)	68%	1.47
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or Ulinzi Stars)	59%	1.70
Handicap -1	Murang'a SEAL win by 2+	21%	4.77
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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