Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United preview

In the upcoming match between Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United, the 1X2 probabilities show Mathare United at 39% to win, compared to Murang'a SEAL's 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Murang'a SEAL winning 2 of their last 6 matches and Mathare United winning 3 out of their last 6.

The model also suggests a 51% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood for both teams to score. However, unexpected results, such as a strong defensive performance or a lack of finishing from either side, could lead to a different outcome than predicted. The expected goals are 1.28 for Murang'a SEAL and 1.43 for Mathare United, indicating a closely contested match.

Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Murang'a SEAL	Draw	Mathare United
Model	33%	28%	39%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	28%	39%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Murang'a SEAL

1.43Mathare United

Total expected goals: 2.71
Attack rating (Murang'a SEAL / Mathare United): 1.13 / 1.12
Defence rating (Murang'a SEAL / Mathare United): 1.29 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.9% 8.3% 6.8% 3.2% 1.6% 1 7.3% 13.4% 8.7% 4.1% 2.0% 2 5.5% 7.8% 5.6% 2.6% 1.3% 3 2.3% 3.3% 2.4% 1.1% 0.6% 4+ 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Murang'a SEAL goals. Columns: Mathare United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 56%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Murang'a SEAL	33%	3.06
	Draw	28%	3.55
	Mathare United	39%	2.55
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.97
	Under 2.5	49%	2.03
Both teams to score	Yes	56%	1.78
	No	44%	2.28
Double chance	1X (Murang'a SEAL or draw)	61%	1.65
	12 (either side)	72%	1.39
	X2 (draw or Mathare United)	67%	1.48
Handicap -1	Mathare United win by 2+	19%	5.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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