Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United preview
In the match between Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United, the 1X2 probabilities show Mathare United at 42%, compared to Murang'a SEAL's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Both teams to score stands at 55%, indicating a reasonable expectation for goals from both sides.
Murang'a SEAL has a recent form of W-L-W-L-W-W, while Mathare United's form is W-D-L-D-W-L. The expected goals are 1.52 for Murang'a SEAL and 1.40 for Mathare United. The confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. A draw or a win for Murang'a SEAL could challenge the predicted scoreline.
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United: model vs market
| Source | Murang'a SEAL | Draw | Mathare United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Murang'a SEAL / Mathare United)
- 1.63 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Murang'a SEAL / Mathare United)
- 1.56 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Murang'a SEAL goals. Columns: Mathare United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Murang'a SEAL | 30% | 3.37 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Mathare United | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Murang'a SEAL or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Mathare United) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mathare United win by 2+ | 16% | 6.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Murang'a SEAL and Mathare United recent form
Murang'a SEAL
4W 0D 2L
Mathare United
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Murang'a SEAL at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Mathare United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Murang'a SEAL at home only, Mathare United away only.
Murang'a SEAL vs Mathare United head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Murang'a SEAL 2 · draws 2 · Mathare United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Murang'a SEAL | 1-1 | Mathare United | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2026-01-10 | Mathare United | 0-2 | Murang'a SEAL | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-03-02 | Murang'a SEAL | 1-1 | Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-12-10 | Mathare United | 0-2 | Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth 2026-11-14
- Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- APS Bomet vs Bandari 2026-11-14
- AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Tusker v Shabana — match page 2026-11-15
- Homeboyz v KCB — match page 2026-11-15
- Police vs Posta Rangers FC — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- 3K vs GOR Mahia 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Murang'a SEAL, previous: Murang'a SEAL vs Ulinzi Stars prediction
- Murang'a SEAL, next: Bandari vs Murang'a SEAL prediction
- Mathare United, previous: Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC: odds and pick
- Mathare United, next: Mathare United – Homeboyz, 2026-11-20