Police vs Posta Rangers FC Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Police vs Posta Rangers FC preview

In the match between Police and Posta Rangers FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Police at 45%, a draw at 34%, and Posta Rangers FC at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 17%.

Police has struggled recently, with a form of D-D-D-D-W-D, while Posta Rangers FC has a slightly better record of L-W-D-W-D-D. The expected goals indicate Police at 1.12 and Posta Rangers FC at 0.67. While both teams to score is at 34% and Over 2.5 goals at 27%, the recent head-to-head shows Police has not won in their last two encounters against Posta Rangers FC, who has 1 win and 1 draw.

Police vs Posta Rangers FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Police	Draw	Posta Rangers FC
Model	45%	34%	21%
Market	—	—	—
Published	45%	34%	21%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.12 vs 0.67.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Police and Posta Rangers FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Police

0.67Posta Rangers FC

Total expected goals: 1.79
Attack rating (Police / Posta Rangers FC): 1.02 / 1.00
Defence rating (Police / Posta Rangers FC): 0.68 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Police vs Posta Rangers FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.9% 10.0% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 1 17.4% 13.8% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2 10.4% 7.0% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 3 3.9% 2.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Police goals. Columns: Posta Rangers FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Police vs Posta Rangers FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 34%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Police vs Posta Rangers FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Police	45%	2.23
	Draw	34%	2.92
	Posta Rangers FC	21%	4.81
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.74
	Under 2.5	73%	1.36
Both teams to score	Yes	34%	2.92
	No	66%	1.52
Double chance	1X (Police or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	66%	1.52
	X2 (draw or Posta Rangers FC)	55%	1.82
Handicap -1	Police win by 2+	20%	5.11
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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