Police vs APS Bomet Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Police vs APS Bomet preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Police and APS Bomet, the 1X2 probabilities show Police at 26%, a draw at 42%, and APS Bomet at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 28%, indicating a low-scoring match.

Both teams to score has a probability of 24%, while Over 2.5 goals is only at 15%. Police's expected goals stand at 0.61, while APS Bomet's is slightly higher at 0.71. Recent form shows Police with five draws and one win, while APS Bomet has two wins and one loss in their last five matches. This context could lead to an unexpected outcome if either team finds a breakthrough.

Police vs APS Bomet: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Police	Draw	APS Bomet
Model	26%	42%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	26%	42%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Police and APS Bomet expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.61Police

0.71APS Bomet

Total expected goals: 1.31
Attack rating (Police / APS Bomet): 1.02 / 1.00
Defence rating (Police / APS Bomet): 0.71 / 0.59

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Police vs APS Bomet score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 28.1% 17.9% 6.7% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.2% 12.7% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 2 4.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 3 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Police goals. Columns: APS Bomet goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Police vs APS Bomet goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 72%

Over 1.5 39%

Over 2.5 15%

Over 3.5 4%

Both teams to score: 24%
No goals (0–0): 28%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Police vs APS Bomet

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Police	26%	3.86
	Draw	42%	2.38
	APS Bomet	32%	3.12
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	15%	6.86
	Under 2.5	85%	1.17
Both teams to score	Yes	24%	4.14
	No	76%	1.32
Double chance	1X (Police or draw)	68%	1.47
	12 (either side)	58%	1.73
	X2 (draw or APS Bomet)	74%	1.35
Handicap -1	APS Bomet win by 2+	10%	10.16
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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