Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Mombasa Elite and Ulinzi Stars, the 1X2 probabilities show Mombasa Elite at 33%, Ulinzi Stars at 34%, and a draw at 33%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which occurs 12% of the time.

The expected goals are closely matched, with Mombasa Elite at 1.03 and Ulinzi Stars at 1.06. While both teams to score stands at 43%, the low Over 2.5 goals probability of 35% suggests a tight match. Recent form indicates Mombasa Elite's mixed results with a loss followed by a win, while Ulinzi Stars has won 3 of their last 5 matches.

Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mombasa Elite	Draw	Ulinzi Stars
Model	33%	33%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	33%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mombasa Elite and Ulinzi Stars expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.03Mombasa Elite

1.06Ulinzi Stars

Total expected goals: 2.09
Attack rating (Mombasa Elite / Ulinzi Stars): 0.98 / 1.07
Defence rating (Mombasa Elite / Ulinzi Stars): 1.00 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.7% 11.8% 6.9% 2.5% 0.8% 1 11.4% 14.9% 7.1% 2.5% 0.8% 2 6.6% 6.9% 3.7% 1.3% 0.4% 3 2.3% 2.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Mombasa Elite goals. Columns: Ulinzi Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 35%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mombasa Elite vs Ulinzi Stars

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mombasa Elite	33%	3.04
	Draw	33%	3.05
	Ulinzi Stars	34%	2.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35%	2.88
	Under 2.5	65%	1.53
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.31
	No	57%	1.76
Double chance	1X (Mombasa Elite or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	67%	1.49
	X2 (draw or Ulinzi Stars)	67%	1.49
Handicap -1	Ulinzi Stars win by 2+	14%	7.12
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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