Posta Rangers FC vs GOR Mahia Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Posta Rangers FC vs GOR Mahia preview

In the match between Posta Rangers FC and GOR Mahia, the 1X2 probabilities show GOR Mahia at 36% and Posta Rangers FC at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a probability of 11%. GOR Mahia has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.18 compared to Posta Rangers FC's 1.11.

However, the recent form indicates that Posta Rangers FC has two losses followed by a win and two draws, while GOR Mahia has won two but lost three of their last six matches. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 40% and both teams to score at 48%, suggesting that while GOR Mahia might be favored, the match could still be competitive.

Posta Rangers FC vs GOR Mahia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Posta Rangers FC	Draw	GOR Mahia
Model	33%	31%	36%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	31%	36%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Posta Rangers FC and GOR Mahia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Posta Rangers FC

1.18GOR Mahia

Total expected goals: 2.29
Attack rating (Posta Rangers FC / GOR Mahia): 0.93 / 1.14
Defence rating (Posta Rangers FC / GOR Mahia): 1.05 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Posta Rangers FC vs GOR Mahia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 10.7% 7.1% 2.8% 1.1% 1 9.9% 14.6% 7.8% 3.1% 1.2% 2 6.2% 7.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.7% 3 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Posta Rangers FC goals. Columns: GOR Mahia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Posta Rangers FC vs GOR Mahia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 68%

Over 2.5 40%

Over 3.5 20%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Posta Rangers FC vs GOR Mahia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Posta Rangers FC	33%	3.07
	Draw	31%	3.22
	GOR Mahia	36%	2.75
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	40%	2.50
	Under 2.5	60%	1.67
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.10
	No	52%	1.91
Double chance	1X (Posta Rangers FC or draw)	64%	1.57
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or GOR Mahia)	67%	1.48
Handicap -1	GOR Mahia win by 2+	16%	6.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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