Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards preview

Migori Youth faces AFC Leopards with a 33% chance for Migori Youth to win, a 32% chance for a draw, and a 35% chance for AFC Leopards to take the match. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at 11%. Both teams to score stands at 45%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 36%.

Migori Youth's expected goals are 1.05, slightly behind AFC Leopards' 1.09. Recent form shows Migori Youth drawing their last match, while AFC Leopards has a mixed record of two draws and three results, including two wins. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.

Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Migori Youth	Draw	AFC Leopards
Model	33%	32%	35%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	32%	35%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Migori Youth and AFC Leopards expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.05Migori Youth

1.09AFC Leopards

Total expected goals: 2.15
Attack rating (Migori Youth / AFC Leopards): 1.00 / 1.11
Defence rating (Migori Youth / AFC Leopards): 1.00 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.0% 11.4% 7.0% 2.6% 0.9% 1 11.0% 14.8% 7.4% 2.7% 0.9% 2 6.5% 7.1% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 3 2.3% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Migori Youth goals. Columns: AFC Leopards goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 65%

Over 2.5 36%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Migori Youth vs AFC Leopards

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Migori Youth	33%	3.05
	Draw	32%	3.10
	AFC Leopards	35%	2.86
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	36%	2.76
	Under 2.5	64%	1.57
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.24
	No	55%	1.81
Double chance	1X (Migori Youth or draw)	65%	1.54
	12 (either side)	68%	1.48
	X2 (draw or AFC Leopards)	67%	1.49
Handicap -1	AFC Leopards win by 2+	15%	6.86
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer