Bandari vs Murang'a SEAL Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Bandari vs Murang'a SEAL preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture, Bandari faces Murang'a SEAL with a 36% chance for Bandari to win, and both teams have a 32% chance for a draw or a Murang'a SEAL victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. While Bandari has shown some inconsistency with their recent form of D-L-W-L-D-D, Murang'a SEAL has struggled, recording L-W-W-L-W-L.

The model suggests a 36% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. Bandari's expected goals stand at 1.11, while Murang'a SEAL's is slightly lower at 1.04. This indicates that if either team can improve their finishing, the match could produce more goals than anticipated.

Bandari vs Murang'a SEAL: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bandari	Draw	Murang'a SEAL
Model	36%	32%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	36%	32%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Bandari and Murang'a SEAL expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Bandari

1.04Murang'a SEAL

Total expected goals: 2.15
Attack rating (Bandari / Murang'a SEAL): 0.71 / 1.17
Defence rating (Bandari / Murang'a SEAL): 0.90 / 1.53

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bandari vs Murang'a SEAL score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.0% 10.8% 6.3% 2.2% 0.7% 1 11.5% 14.8% 7.0% 2.4% 0.8% 2 7.2% 7.5% 3.9% 1.4% 0.4% 3 2.6% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Bandari goals. Columns: Murang'a SEAL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bandari vs Murang'a SEAL goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 65%

Over 2.5 36%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bandari vs Murang'a SEAL

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bandari	36%	2.81
	Draw	32%	3.11
	Murang'a SEAL	32%	3.10
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	36%	2.74
	Under 2.5	64%	1.57
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.23
	No	55%	1.81
Double chance	1X (Bandari or draw)	68%	1.48
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or Murang'a SEAL)	64%	1.55
Handicap -1	Bandari win by 2+	15%	6.66
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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