Bandari vs Mathare United Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Bandari vs Mathare United preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture, Bandari faces Mathare United with 1X2 probabilities of 25% for Bandari, 42% for a draw, and 33% for Mathare United. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 28%, suggesting a low-scoring match.

The expected goals are 0.60 for Bandari and 0.73 for Mathare United, indicating a tight contest. Both teams to score stands at 24%, and Over 2.5 goals is only 15%. Bandari's recent form shows L-D-D-L-W-L, while Mathare United has D-L-D-W-L-W. A draw seems plausible, but if either team finds their scoring touch, the forecast could change.

Bandari vs Mathare United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bandari	Draw	Mathare United
Model	25%	42%	33%
Market	—	—	—
Published	25%	42%	33%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Bandari and Mathare United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.60Bandari

0.73Mathare United

Total expected goals: 1.33
Attack rating (Bandari / Mathare United): 0.64 / 0.82
Defence rating (Bandari / Mathare United): 0.91 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bandari vs Mathare United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 27.7% 18.1% 7.0% 1.7% 0.4% 1 14.8% 12.7% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 2 4.8% 3.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 3 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Bandari goals. Columns: Mathare United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bandari vs Mathare United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 72%

Over 1.5 39%

Over 2.5 15%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 24%
No goals (0–0): 28%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bandari vs Mathare United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bandari	25%	3.96
	Draw	42%	2.40
	Mathare United	33%	3.03
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	15%	6.70
	Under 2.5	85%	1.18
Both teams to score	Yes	24%	4.09
	No	76%	1.32
Double chance	1X (Bandari or draw)	67%	1.49
	12 (either side)	58%	1.72
	X2 (draw or Mathare United)	75%	1.34
Handicap -1	Mathare United win by 2+	10%	9.64
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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