Homeboyz vs Shabana Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Homeboyz vs Shabana preview

In the upcoming match between Homeboyz and Shabana, the 1X2 probabilities show Homeboyz at 37%, a draw at 38%, and Shabana at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 23% chance, indicating a potential lack of goals.

Both teams to score has a 30% probability, while Over 2.5 goals is only at 20%. Homeboyz has an expected goals figure of 0.87, while Shabana sits lower at 0.66. Recent form shows Homeboyz with four draws and two losses, while Shabana has two wins and one loss in their last six matches.

Homeboyz vs Shabana: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Homeboyz	Draw	Shabana
Model	37%	38%	25%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	38%	25%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Homeboyz and Shabana expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.87Homeboyz

0.66Shabana

Total expected goals: 1.54
Attack rating (Homeboyz / Shabana): 1.06 / 0.65
Defence rating (Homeboyz / Shabana): 1.05 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Homeboyz vs Shabana score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 22.7% 13.0% 4.7% 1.0% 0.2% 1 17.5% 13.7% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 2 8.2% 5.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 3 2.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Homeboyz goals. Columns: Shabana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Homeboyz vs Shabana goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 77%

Over 1.5 47%

Over 2.5 20%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 30%
No goals (0–0): 23%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Homeboyz vs Shabana

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Homeboyz	37%	2.71
	Draw	38%	2.61
	Shabana	25%	4.04
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	20%	4.98
	Under 2.5	80%	1.25
Both teams to score	Yes	30%	3.39
	No	70%	1.42
Double chance	1X (Homeboyz or draw)	75%	1.33
	12 (either side)	62%	1.62
	X2 (draw or Shabana)	63%	1.58
Handicap -1	Homeboyz win by 2+	13%	7.48
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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