Mara Sugar vs Police Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Mara Sugar vs Police preview

Mara Sugar faces Police with a 29% chance of winning compared to Police's 31%, while a draw stands at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, which reflects the low expected goals of 0.72 for Mara Sugar and 0.74 for Police. With only an 18% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 28% for both teams to score, this match may lack action.

Mara Sugar's recent form shows 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, while Police has 6 consecutive draws. In their last 2 meetings, Mara Sugar has not won, with 1 draw and 1 loss against Police. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.

Mara Sugar vs Police: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mara Sugar	Draw	Police
Model	29%	40%	31%
Market	—	—	—
Published	29%	40%	31%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mara Sugar and Police expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.72Mara Sugar

0.74Police

Total expected goals: 1.46
Attack rating (Mara Sugar / Police): 0.88 / 0.92
Defence rating (Mara Sugar / Police): 0.83 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mara Sugar vs Police score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 24.4% 16.0% 6.4% 1.6% 0.3% 1 15.4% 13.6% 4.6% 1.1% 0.2% 2 6.0% 4.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 3 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Mara Sugar goals. Columns: Police goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mara Sugar vs Police goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 76%

Over 1.5 44%

Over 2.5 18%

Over 3.5 6%

Both teams to score: 28%
No goals (0–0): 24%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mara Sugar vs Police

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mara Sugar	29%	3.40
	Draw	40%	2.51
	Police	31%	3.25
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	18%	5.51
	Under 2.5	82%	1.22
Both teams to score	Yes	28%	3.56
	No	72%	1.39
Double chance	1X (Mara Sugar or draw)	69%	1.45
	12 (either side)	60%	1.66
	X2 (draw or Police)	71%	1.42
Handicap -1	Police win by 2+	10%	10.20
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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