Murang'a SEAL vs KCB Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Murang'a SEAL vs KCB preview

In the match between Murang'a SEAL and KCB, the 1X2 probabilities show Murang'a SEAL at 38%, KCB at 36%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score has a 65% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 63%.

Murang'a SEAL's expected goals are 1.64, slightly higher than KCB's 1.60. Recent form indicates Murang'a SEAL has won 3 out of their last 6 matches, while KCB has also won 3 out of 6. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. This could affect the expected performance of either team.

Murang'a SEAL vs KCB: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Murang'a SEAL	Draw	KCB
Model	38%	25%	36%
Market	—	—	—
Published	38%	25%	36%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Murang'a SEAL and KCB expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.64Murang'a SEAL

1.60KCB

Total expected goals: 3.24
Attack rating (Murang'a SEAL / KCB): 1.49 / 1.10
Defence rating (Murang'a SEAL / KCB): 1.50 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Murang'a SEAL vs KCB score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 5.2% 5.0% 2.7% 1.5% 1 5.4% 11.3% 8.2% 4.4% 2.5% 2 5.3% 8.4% 6.7% 3.6% 2.1% 3 2.9% 4.6% 3.7% 2.0% 1.1% 4+ 1.7% 2.7% 2.2% 1.2% 0.7%

Rows: Murang'a SEAL goals. Columns: KCB goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Murang'a SEAL vs KCB goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Murang'a SEAL vs KCB

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Murang'a SEAL	38%	2.61
	Draw	25%	3.95
	KCB	36%	2.75
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.59
	Under 2.5	37%	2.69
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.53
	No	35%	2.89
Double chance	1X (Murang'a SEAL or draw)	64%	1.57
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or KCB)	62%	1.62
Handicap -1	Murang'a SEAL win by 2+	20%	5.04
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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