GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between GOR Mahia and Mombasa Elite, the 1X2 probabilities show GOR Mahia at 39%, Mombasa Elite at 28%, and a draw at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance according to our model. GOR Mahia has an expected goals figure of 1.11, while Mombasa Elite sits at 0.89.

While GOR Mahia has shown some strong recent form with three wins in their last six matches, Mombasa Elite's recent results include one win and two losses. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 32%, and both teams to score is at 41%. These figures suggest a low-scoring match, but if Mombasa Elite improves their attack, the outcome could differ.

GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	GOR Mahia	Draw	Mombasa Elite
Model	39%	33%	28%
Market	—	—	—
Published	39%	33%	28%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

GOR Mahia and Mombasa Elite expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11GOR Mahia

0.89Mombasa Elite

Total expected goals: 2.00
Attack rating (GOR Mahia / Mombasa Elite): 1.10 / 0.86
Defence rating (GOR Mahia / Mombasa Elite): 1.06 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.9% 10.7% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4% 1 13.7% 14.7% 5.9% 1.8% 0.5% 2 8.3% 7.4% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 3 3.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: GOR Mahia goals. Columns: Mombasa Elite goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 61%

Over 2.5 32%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 41%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for GOR Mahia vs Mombasa Elite

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	GOR Mahia	39%	2.56
	Draw	33%	3.00
	Mombasa Elite	28%	3.62
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32%	3.10
	Under 2.5	68%	1.48
Both teams to score	Yes	41%	2.45
	No	59%	1.69
Double chance	1X (GOR Mahia or draw)	72%	1.38
	12 (either side)	67%	1.50
	X2 (draw or Mombasa Elite)	61%	1.64
Handicap -1	GOR Mahia win by 2+	17%	6.01
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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