Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Ulinzi Stars and AFC Leopards, the 1X2 probabilities show Ulinzi Stars at 33%, a draw at 35%, and AFC Leopards at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 17%, indicating a potential lack of goals. Both teams to score is at 37%, which suggests that scoring from both sides is not highly expected.

Ulinzi Stars' expected goals stand at 0.93, while AFC Leopards' is slightly lower at 0.91. Recent form shows Ulinzi Stars with two wins in their last six matches, and AFC Leopards with two wins as well, but with more inconsistency. The confidence grade is C, meaning predictions could vary based on performance on match day.

Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ulinzi Stars	Draw	AFC Leopards
Model	33%	35%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	35%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ulinzi Stars and AFC Leopards expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.93Ulinzi Stars

0.91AFC Leopards

Total expected goals: 1.84
Attack rating (Ulinzi Stars / AFC Leopards): 0.97 / 1.02
Defence rating (Ulinzi Stars / AFC Leopards): 0.91 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.3% 13.1% 6.6% 2.0% 0.5% 1 13.5% 14.8% 6.1% 1.8% 0.5% 2 6.9% 6.2% 2.8% 0.9% 0.2% 3 2.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Ulinzi Stars goals. Columns: AFC Leopards goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 56%

Over 2.5 28%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 37%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ulinzi Stars vs AFC Leopards

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ulinzi Stars	33%	3.03
	Draw	35%	2.84
	AFC Leopards	32%	3.14
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	28%	3.58
	Under 2.5	72%	1.39
Both teams to score	Yes	37%	2.67
	No	63%	1.60
Double chance	1X (Ulinzi Stars or draw)	68%	1.47
	12 (either side)	65%	1.54
	X2 (draw or AFC Leopards)	67%	1.49
Handicap -1	Ulinzi Stars win by 2+	12%	8.10
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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