3K vs Nairobi United Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

3K vs Nairobi United preview

In the match between 3K and Nairobi United, the 1X2 probabilities show 3K at 35%, a draw at 30%, and Nairobi United at 36%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, with a 9% chance of that outcome.

Both teams have shown some recent form, with 3K recording a W-D-D and Nairobi United on a D-D-D-W-D-D streak. The expected goals are close, with 3K at 1.23 and Nairobi United at 1.25. The model suggests a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, but factors like team performance on the day could influence these outcomes.

3K vs Nairobi United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	3K	Draw	Nairobi United
Model	35%	30%	36%
Market	—	—	—
Published	35%	30%	36%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

3K and Nairobi United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.233K

1.25Nairobi United

Total expected goals: 2.48
Attack rating (3K / Nairobi United): 1.25 / 1.16
Defence rating (3K / Nairobi United): 1.11 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

3K vs Nairobi United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.6% 9.2% 6.5% 2.7% 1.1% 1 9.0% 14.2% 8.1% 3.4% 1.4% 2 6.3% 7.9% 5.0% 2.1% 0.8% 3 2.6% 3.3% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.0% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: 3K goals. Columns: Nairobi United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

3K vs Nairobi United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for 3K vs Nairobi United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	3K	35%	2.88
	Draw	30%	3.37
	Nairobi United	36%	2.81
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45%	2.21
	Under 2.5	55%	1.82
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.93
	No	48%	2.08
Double chance	1X (3K or draw)	64%	1.55
	12 (either side)	70%	1.42
	X2 (draw or Nairobi United)	65%	1.53
Handicap -1	Nairobi United win by 2+	16%	6.23
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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