APS Bomet vs Migori Youth Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

APS Bomet vs Migori Youth preview

In the match between APS Bomet and Migori Youth, the 1X2 probabilities show APS Bomet at 41%, a draw at 39%, and Migori Youth at 19%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 21% chance according to our model.

While APS Bomet has a better expected goals figure of 0.89 compared to Migori Youth's 0.52, the low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals (17%) and both teams to score (25%) suggest a tight match. Recent form also indicates APS Bomet has struggled with three draws in their last five games, which could impact their performance.

APS Bomet vs Migori Youth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	APS Bomet	Draw	Migori Youth
Model	41%	39%	19%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	39%	19%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.89 vs 0.52.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

APS Bomet and Migori Youth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.89APS Bomet

0.52Migori Youth

Total expected goals: 1.41
Attack rating (APS Bomet / Migori Youth): 1.03 / 0.85
Defence rating (APS Bomet / Migori Youth): 0.63 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

APS Bomet vs Migori Youth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 25.5% 11.5% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1 20.6% 12.4% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 2 9.7% 5.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 3 2.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: APS Bomet goals. Columns: Migori Youth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

APS Bomet vs Migori Youth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 74%

Over 1.5 42%

Over 2.5 17%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 25%
No goals (0–0): 26%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for APS Bomet vs Migori Youth

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	APS Bomet	41%	2.41
	Draw	39%	2.54
	Migori Youth	19%	5.20
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	17%	5.92
	Under 2.5	83%	1.20
Both teams to score	Yes	25%	4.00
	No	75%	1.33
Double chance	1X (APS Bomet or draw)	81%	1.24
	12 (either side)	61%	1.65
	X2 (draw or Migori Youth)	59%	1.71
Handicap -1	APS Bomet win by 2+	15%	6.51
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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