Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC Prediction & Betting Tips 01/11/2026

Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC preview

In the upcoming match between Tusker and Posta Rangers FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Tusker at 42%, Posta Rangers FC at 24%, and a draw at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance of occurring. Tusker's expected goals are 1.12, while Posta Rangers FC's are lower at 0.78, indicating a potential advantage for Tusker.

However, the recent form could influence the outcome. Tusker has recorded 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Posta Rangers FC has 2 wins in their last 6 games. Additionally, the chances of Over 2.5 goals are just 30%, and both teams to score is at 38%. These factors could lead to a different result than predicted.

Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Tusker	Draw	Posta Rangers FC
Model	41%	34%	25%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	34%	25%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Tusker and Posta Rangers FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Tusker

0.82Posta Rangers FC

Total expected goals: 1.93
Attack rating (Tusker / Posta Rangers FC): 0.86 / 0.97
Defence rating (Tusker / Posta Rangers FC): 0.87 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.8% 10.5% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 1 14.8% 14.5% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2 9.0% 7.3% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 3 3.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Tusker goals. Columns: Posta Rangers FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 59%

Over 2.5 30%

Over 3.5 13%

Both teams to score: 39%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tusker vs Posta Rangers FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Tusker	41%	2.44
	Draw	34%	2.97
	Posta Rangers FC	25%	3.95
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	30%	3.28
	Under 2.5	70%	1.44
Both teams to score	Yes	39%	2.58
	No	61%	1.63
Double chance	1X (Tusker or draw)	75%	1.34
	12 (either side)	66%	1.51
	X2 (draw or Posta Rangers FC)	59%	1.69
Handicap -1	Tusker win by 2+	18%	5.68
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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