APS Bomet vs Bandari Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

APS Bomet vs Bandari preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between APS Bomet and Bandari, the 1X2 probabilities show APS Bomet at 50% to win, while Bandari sits at just 12%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 25% chance according to our model. APS Bomet's expected goals are 1.01, significantly higher than Bandari's 0.32.

However, the prediction could be challenged if Bandari improves their recent form, which includes only 1 win in their last 5 matches. Additionally, the low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 16% and both teams to score at 20% suggest a tight match, making it possible for the outcome to differ from expectations.

APS Bomet vs Bandari: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	APS Bomet	Draw	Bandari
Model	50%	38%	12%
Market	—	—	—
Published	50%	38%	12%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.01 vs 0.32.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

APS Bomet and Bandari expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01APS Bomet

0.32Bandari

Total expected goals: 1.33
Attack rating (APS Bomet / Bandari): 1.21 / 0.60
Defence rating (APS Bomet / Bandari): 0.55 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

APS Bomet vs Bandari score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 27.4% 7.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1 25.9% 9.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 2 13.4% 4.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 3 4.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4+ 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: APS Bomet goals. Columns: Bandari goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

APS Bomet vs Bandari goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 73%

Over 1.5 39%

Over 2.5 15%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 20%
No goals (0–0): 27%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for APS Bomet vs Bandari

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	APS Bomet	50%	2.00
	Draw	38%	2.66
	Bandari	12%	8.09
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	16%	6.34
	Under 2.5	84%	1.19
Both teams to score	Yes	20%	4.95
	No	80%	1.25
Double chance	1X (APS Bomet or draw)	88%	1.14
	12 (either side)	62%	1.60
	X2 (draw or Bandari)	50%	2.00
Handicap -1	APS Bomet win by 2+	21%	4.69
	Push (exactly one goal)	30%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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