AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite preview
AFC Leopards face Mombasa Elite with a 35% chance for AFC Leopards to win, a 29% chance for a draw, and a 36% chance for Mombasa Elite to take all three points. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 9% probability. Both teams to score has a 54% chance, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 48%.
AFC Leopards have a slight edge in expected goals at 1.28 compared to Mombasa Elite's 1.31. However, AFC Leopards' recent form shows two losses in their last three matches, which could impact their performance. Mombasa Elite is coming off a win, adding to their confidence heading into this match.
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite: model vs market
| Source | AFC Leopards | Draw | Mombasa Elite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (AFC Leopards / Mombasa Elite)
- 1.25 / 1.17
- Defence rating (AFC Leopards / Mombasa Elite)
- 1.14 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AFC Leopards goals. Columns: Mombasa Elite goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 35% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Mombasa Elite | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AFC Leopards or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Mombasa Elite) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mombasa Elite win by 2+ | 17% | 5.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite recent form
AFC Leopards
3W 0D 3L
Mombasa Elite
1W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- AFC Leopards, previous: AFC Leopards vs Bandari: odds and pick
- Mombasa Elite, previous: Mombasa Elite vs Shabana: odds and pick