AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite preview

AFC Leopards face Mombasa Elite with a 58% chance of winning, while Mombasa Elite sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. AFC Leopards have an expected goals figure of 1.18, compared to Mombasa Elite's 0.67, indicating a stronger attacking performance.

However, both teams to score stands at 44%, suggesting Mombasa Elite could find the net. AFC Leopards' recent form shows two draws and a win in their last five matches, while Mombasa Elite has one win but three losses in the same period. This inconsistency could impact the final outcome of the match.

AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	AFC Leopards	Draw	Mombasa Elite
Model	37%	32%	31%
Market	65%	24%	11%
Published	58%	26%	16%
Edge	-7%	+2%	+5%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.67.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.40, recorded 2026-10-16 — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -18.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite odds movement

Median bookmaker price on AFC Leopards, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.37Now 1.37 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
AFC Leopards	1.37	1.37	+0.00
Draw	3.82	3.74	-0.08
Mombasa Elite	8.00	8.40	+0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AFC Leopards and Mombasa Elite expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18AFC Leopards

0.67Mombasa Elite

Total expected goals: 1.85
Attack rating (AFC Leopards / Mombasa Elite): 0.93 / 0.88
Defence rating (AFC Leopards / Mombasa Elite): 0.79 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.9% 9.3% 3.5% 0.8% 0.2% 1 17.3% 13.7% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 2 11.0% 7.3% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 3 4.3% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: AFC Leopards goals. Columns: Mombasa Elite goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 56%

Over 2.5 28%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	AFC Leopards	58%	1.72
	Draw	26%	3.84
	Mombasa Elite	16%	6.38
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	36%	2.78
	Under 2.5	64%	1.56
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.26
	No	56%	1.79
Double chance	1X (AFC Leopards or draw)	84%	1.19
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Mombasa Elite)	42%	2.40
Handicap -1	AFC Leopards win by 2+	21%	4.70
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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