Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth, the 1X2 probabilities show Ulinzi Stars at 35%, a draw at 32%, and Migori Youth at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance according to our model.

Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Ulinzi Stars recording L-D-D-L-W-W and Migori Youth at D-D-D. The expected goals are closely matched, with Ulinzi Stars at 0.81 and Migori Youth at 0.78. While the likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 35% and both teams to score at 44%, factors such as defensive performances could lead to a different outcome.

Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ulinzi Stars	Draw	Migori Youth
Model	36%	33%	32%
Market	35%	32%	33%
Published	35%	32%	33%
Edge	0%	0%	0%

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded 2026-10-16 — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ulinzi Stars, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 2.53Now 2.51 -0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Ulinzi Stars	2.53	2.51	-0.02
Draw	2.81	2.80	-0.01
Migori Youth	2.69	2.69	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.81Ulinzi Stars

0.78Migori Youth

Total expected goals: 1.59
Attack rating (Ulinzi Stars / Migori Youth): 0.90 / 0.88
Defence rating (Ulinzi Stars / Migori Youth): 0.92 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.7% 14.6% 6.2% 1.6% 0.4% 1 15.3% 14.2% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 2 6.7% 5.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 3 1.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Ulinzi Stars goals. Columns: Migori Youth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%

Over 1.5 48%

Over 2.5 21%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ulinzi Stars	35%	2.83
	Draw	32%	3.13
	Migori Youth	33%	3.05
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35%	2.84
	Under 2.5	65%	1.54
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.29
	No	56%	1.78
Double chance	1X (Ulinzi Stars or draw)	67%	1.49
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or Migori Youth)	65%	1.55
Handicap -1	Ulinzi Stars win by 2+	11%	9.20
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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