Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth preview
Ulinzi Stars face Migori Youth with a 42% chance of winning compared to Migori's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% probability. Ulinzi Stars have an expected goals tally of 1.21, while Migori Youth sits at 0.91.
Both teams to score stands at 43%, suggesting a moderate chance for goals from both sides. However, the recent form of Ulinzi Stars shows three wins in their last five matches, while Migori Youth's form is not available. This lack of recent performance data for Migori could impact the match outcome.
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth: model vs market
| Source | Ulinzi Stars | Draw | Migori Youth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 32% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.91.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (Ulinzi Stars / Migori Youth)
- 1.19 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Ulinzi Stars / Migori Youth)
- 0.92 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ulinzi Stars goals. Columns: Migori Youth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ulinzi Stars | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Migori Youth | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ulinzi Stars or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Migori Youth) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ulinzi Stars win by 2+ | 19% | 5.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ulinzi Stars and Migori Youth recent form
Ulinzi Stars
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Homeboyz v KCB — match page 2026-10-16
- AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Tusker v Shabana — match page 2026-10-16
- Police vs Posta Rangers FC — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- APS Bomet vs Bandari 2026-10-16
- Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United — match page 2026-10-16
- Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- 3K vs GOR Mahia 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Ulinzi Stars, previous: Ulinzi Stars vs Tusker prediction
- Migori Youth, previous: Migori Youth vs Police prediction