Tusker vs Shabana Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Tusker vs Shabana preview

In the upcoming match between Tusker and Shabana, the 1X2 probabilities show Tusker at 37%, a draw at 38%, and Shabana at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, which has a 22% chance according to our model.

Tusker's expected goals are 0.89, while Shabana's are lower at 0.68. This suggests a tight match with limited scoring opportunities. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are only 21%, and both teams to score stands at 30%. Recent form shows Tusker with a record of W-D-D-L-L-W, while Shabana has L-D-W-L-D-D. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome.

Tusker vs Shabana: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Tusker	Draw	Shabana
Model	37%	38%	25%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	38%	25%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Tusker and Shabana expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.89Tusker

0.68Shabana

Total expected goals: 1.57
Attack rating (Tusker / Shabana): 0.86 / 0.79
Defence rating (Tusker / Shabana): 0.88 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tusker vs Shabana score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 22.1% 12.9% 4.8% 1.1% 0.2% 1 17.3% 13.8% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% 2 8.3% 5.6% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 3 2.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Tusker goals. Columns: Shabana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tusker vs Shabana goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%

Over 1.5 48%

Over 2.5 21%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 30%
No goals (0–0): 22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tusker vs Shabana

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Tusker	37%	2.69
	Draw	38%	2.64
	Shabana	25%	4.01
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	21%	4.78
	Under 2.5	79%	1.26
Both teams to score	Yes	30%	3.30
	No	70%	1.44
Double chance	1X (Tusker or draw)	75%	1.33
	12 (either side)	62%	1.61
	X2 (draw or Shabana)	63%	1.59
Handicap -1	Tusker win by 2+	14%	7.33
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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