Tusker vs Shabana preview
In the match between Tusker and Shabana, the 1X2 probabilities show Tusker at 39%, a draw at 38%, and Shabana at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Tusker, with an 18% chance. Both teams to score has a 30% likelihood, while Over 2.5 goals is at just 21%.
Tusker's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 draws, while Shabana has 1 win and 5 draws in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are closely matched, with Tusker at 0.69 and Shabana at 0.65. The confidence grade is C, indicating that the predictions could be affected by the teams' inconsistent performances.
Tusker vs Shabana: model vs market
| Source | Tusker | Draw | Shabana |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 38% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tusker and Shabana expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.34
- Attack rating (Tusker / Shabana)
- 0.89 / 0.69
- Defence rating (Tusker / Shabana)
- 0.98 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tusker vs Shabana score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tusker goals. Columns: Shabana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tusker vs Shabana goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 27%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tusker vs Shabana
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tusker | 39% | 2.54 |
| Draw | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Shabana | 23% | 4.39 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 21% | 4.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.39 |
| No | 70% | 1.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tusker or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| X2 (draw or Shabana) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tusker win by 2+ | 9% | 10.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Tusker and Shabana recent form
Tusker
2W 2D 2L
Shabana
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shabana away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Tusker at home only, Shabana away only.
Tusker vs Shabana head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Tusker 1 · draws 2 · Shabana 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Shabana | 1-0 | Tusker | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-10-05 | Tusker | 1-1 | Shabana | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-02-26 | Tusker | 1-1 | Shabana | FKF Premier League |
| 2025-01-11 | Shabana | 2-1 | Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-02-11 | Shabana | 0-4 | Tusker | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-10-06 | Tusker | 0-1 | Shabana | FKF Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
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- Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- APS Bomet vs Bandari 2026-11-14
- AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Homeboyz v KCB — match page 2026-11-15
- Police vs Posta Rangers FC — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United — match page 2026-11-15
- 3K vs GOR Mahia 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Tusker, previous: Bandari – Tusker, 2026-11-08
- Tusker, next: Nairobi United vs Tusker: odds and pick
- Shabana, previous: Mombasa Elite vs Shabana: odds and pick
- Shabana, next: Shabana v Mara Sugar analysis