Bandari vs Tusker Prediction & Betting Tips 08/11/2026

Bandari vs Tusker preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Bandari and Tusker, the 1X2 probabilities show Bandari at 26%, a draw at 42%, and Tusker at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 29% chance according to our model.

Both teams have struggled to score recently, with expected goals of 0.61 for Bandari and 0.69 for Tusker. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is just 14%, while both teams to score sits at 24%. Bandari's recent form includes 2 wins and 3 draws, while Tusker has 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss. This context could lead to a different outcome than predicted.

Bandari vs Tusker: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bandari	Draw	Tusker
Model	26%	42%	31%
Market	—	—	—
Published	26%	42%	31%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Bandari and Tusker expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.61Bandari

0.69Tusker

Total expected goals: 1.30
Attack rating (Bandari / Tusker): 0.60 / 0.89
Defence rating (Bandari / Tusker): 0.80 / 0.98

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bandari vs Tusker score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 28.5% 17.7% 6.5% 1.5% 0.3% 1 15.5% 12.6% 3.9% 0.9% 0.2% 2 5.1% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 3 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Bandari goals. Columns: Tusker goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bandari vs Tusker goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 71%

Over 1.5 38%

Over 2.5 14%

Over 3.5 4%

Both teams to score: 24%
No goals (0–0): 29%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bandari vs Tusker

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bandari	26%	3.79
	Draw	42%	2.36
	Tusker	31%	3.20
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	14%	7.04
	Under 2.5	86%	1.17
Both teams to score	Yes	24%	4.20
	No	76%	1.31
Double chance	1X (Bandari or draw)	69%	1.46
	12 (either side)	58%	1.73
	X2 (draw or Tusker)	74%	1.36
Handicap -1	Tusker win by 2+	9%	10.65
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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