Mombasa Elite vs Shabana Prediction & Betting Tips 07/11/2026

Mombasa Elite vs Shabana preview

In the match between Mombasa Elite and Shabana, the 1X2 probabilities show Mombasa Elite at 27%, a draw at 39%, and Shabana at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 24% chance according to our model. Both teams have struggled to score, with expected goals of 0.68 for Mombasa Elite and 0.82 for Shabana.

While the likelihood of a low-scoring game is high, factors like recent form could influence the outcome. Mombasa Elite has recorded 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Shabana has 1 win in their last 6. The low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 19% and both teams to score at 29% suggest a cautious approach may be warranted.

Mombasa Elite vs Shabana: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mombasa Elite	Draw	Shabana
Model	27%	39%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	27%	39%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mombasa Elite and Shabana expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.68Mombasa Elite

0.82Shabana

Total expected goals: 1.50
Attack rating (Mombasa Elite / Shabana): 0.88 / 0.69
Defence rating (Mombasa Elite / Shabana): 1.24 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mombasa Elite vs Shabana score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 23.5% 17.0% 7.4% 2.0% 0.5% 1 14.0% 13.7% 5.1% 1.4% 0.3% 2 5.2% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 3 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Mombasa Elite goals. Columns: Shabana goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mombasa Elite vs Shabana goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 76%

Over 1.5 46%

Over 2.5 19%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 29%
No goals (0–0): 24%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mombasa Elite vs Shabana

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mombasa Elite	27%	3.77
	Draw	39%	2.56
	Shabana	34%	2.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	19%	5.22
	Under 2.5	81%	1.24
Both teams to score	Yes	29%	3.46
	No	71%	1.41
Double chance	1X (Mombasa Elite or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	61%	1.64
	X2 (draw or Shabana)	73%	1.36
Handicap -1	Shabana win by 2+	12%	8.47
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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