Homeboyz vs Police Prediction & Betting Tips 07/11/2026

Homeboyz vs Police preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Homeboyz and Police, the 1X2 probabilities show Homeboyz at 26%, while both a draw and a Police win sit at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 21% chance according to our model.

Homeboyz's expected goals are 0.72, compared to Police's 0.91, indicating a slight edge for the visitors. However, the recent form of Homeboyz, with 1 win in their last 6 matches, could impact their performance. Additionally, the low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 22% and both teams to score at 32% suggest a potentially low-scoring match.

Homeboyz vs Police: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Homeboyz	Draw	Police
Model	26%	37%	37%
Market	—	—	—
Published	26%	37%	37%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Homeboyz and Police expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.72Homeboyz

0.91Police

Total expected goals: 1.63
Attack rating (Homeboyz / Police): 0.93 / 0.91
Defence rating (Homeboyz / Police): 1.04 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Homeboyz vs Police score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.9% 16.6% 8.1% 2.5% 0.7% 1 12.8% 14.1% 5.8% 1.8% 0.5% 2 5.1% 4.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 3 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Homeboyz goals. Columns: Police goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Homeboyz vs Police goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%

Over 1.5 50%

Over 2.5 22%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 32%
No goals (0–0): 21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Homeboyz vs Police

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Homeboyz	26%	3.86
	Draw	37%	2.68
	Police	37%	2.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	22%	4.46
	Under 2.5	78%	1.29
Both teams to score	Yes	32%	3.13
	No	68%	1.47
Double chance	1X (Homeboyz or draw)	63%	1.58
	12 (either side)	63%	1.59
	X2 (draw or Police)	74%	1.35
Handicap -1	Police win by 2+	14%	7.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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