Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC Prediction & Betting Tips 07/11/2026

Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Mathare United and Posta Rangers FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Mathare United at 42%, a draw at 34%, and Posta Rangers FC at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16% chance, indicating a low-scoring match.

Mathare United has an expected goals figure of 1.11, while Posta Rangers FC sits at 0.76. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 29%, and both teams to score is at 37%. A draw or a higher-scoring game could challenge the expected outcome based on these statistics.

Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mathare United	Draw	Posta Rangers FC
Model	42%	34%	24%
Market	—	—	—
Published	42%	34%	24%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.11 vs 0.76.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mathare United and Posta Rangers FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Mathare United

0.76Posta Rangers FC

Total expected goals: 1.87
Attack rating (Mathare United / Posta Rangers FC): 0.94 / 0.87
Defence rating (Mathare United / Posta Rangers FC): 0.90 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.7% 10.4% 4.4% 1.1% 0.3% 1 15.8% 14.3% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3% 2 9.5% 7.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 3 3.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Mathare United goals. Columns: Posta Rangers FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%

Over 1.5 57%

Over 2.5 29%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 37%
No goals (0–0): 17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mathare United	42%	2.36
	Draw	34%	2.94
	Posta Rangers FC	24%	4.23
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	29%	3.47
	Under 2.5	71%	1.41
Both teams to score	Yes	37%	2.70
	No	63%	1.59
Double chance	1X (Mathare United or draw)	76%	1.31
	12 (either side)	66%	1.52
	X2 (draw or Posta Rangers FC)	58%	1.73
Handicap -1	Mathare United win by 2+	18%	5.48
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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