GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United Prediction & Betting Tips 08/11/2026

GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between GOR Mahia and Nairobi United, the 1X2 probabilities show GOR Mahia at 37%, Nairobi United at 32%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance. GOR Mahia's expected goals stand at 1.25, while Nairobi United's is slightly lower at 1.14.

Both teams to score is at 50%, indicating a balanced chance for both sides to find the net. However, GOR Mahia's recent form includes 4 wins and 2 losses, while Nairobi United has 1 win and 5 matches without a victory. This discrepancy in form could affect the outcome, making the match unpredictable despite the statistics.

GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	GOR Mahia	Draw	Nairobi United
Model	37%	30%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	30%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

GOR Mahia and Nairobi United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25GOR Mahia

1.14Nairobi United

Total expected goals: 2.39
Attack rating (GOR Mahia / Nairobi United): 1.07 / 1.24
Defence rating (GOR Mahia / Nairobi United): 0.96 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 9.1% 6.0% 2.3% 0.8% 1 10.1% 14.4% 7.5% 2.8% 1.0% 2 7.1% 8.2% 4.7% 1.8% 0.7% 3 3.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: GOR Mahia goals. Columns: Nairobi United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 70%

Over 2.5 43%

Over 3.5 22%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	GOR Mahia	37%	2.67
	Draw	30%	3.30
	Nairobi United	32%	3.10
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	43%	2.33
	Under 2.5	57%	1.75
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	2.00
	No	50%	2.00
Double chance	1X (GOR Mahia or draw)	68%	1.48
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or Nairobi United)	63%	1.60
Handicap -1	GOR Mahia win by 2+	17%	5.89
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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