3K vs GOR Mahia preview
In the upcoming match between 3K and GOR Mahia, the 1X2 probabilities show 3K at 44%, GOR Mahia at 25%, and a draw at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 14% chance. This suggests a close contest, but the low expected goals of 1.25 for 3K and 0.87 for GOR Mahia indicate a potential struggle for scoring.
While 43% of the time both teams are expected to score, the model's prediction of only 36% for Over 2.5 goals suggests that high-scoring action may be limited. GOR Mahia's recent form of L-L-L-D-W-D could impact their performance, making it possible for the match to deviate from the model's expectations.
3K vs GOR Mahia: model vs market
| Source | 3K | Draw | GOR Mahia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 32% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 44% | 32% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.87.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
3K and GOR Mahia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (3K / GOR Mahia)
- 1.00 / 0.89
- Defence rating (3K / GOR Mahia)
- 1.00 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
3K vs GOR Mahia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: 3K goals. Columns: GOR Mahia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
3K vs GOR Mahia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for 3K vs GOR Mahia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 3K | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.16 | |
| GOR Mahia | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (3K or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or GOR Mahia) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | 3K win by 2+ | 20% | 4.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
3K and GOR Mahia recent form
GOR Mahia
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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- Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United — match page 2026-10-16
- Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar — team news & stats 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- 3K, previous: 3K – Mara Sugar, 2026-10-11
- GOR Mahia, previous: GOR Mahia vs Murang'a SEAL: odds and pick