3K vs GOR Mahia Prediction & Betting Tips 15/11/2026

3K vs GOR Mahia preview

In the match between 3K and GOR Mahia, the 1X2 probabilities show GOR Mahia at 55%, while 3K sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, which occurs with an 8% probability. GOR Mahia's recent form includes four wins followed by a loss, while 3K has a mixed record of one win and three draws.

The model also suggests a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability for both teams to score. However, if GOR Mahia's recent performance dips or 3K finds a way to improve their scoring, these predictions could change. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast.

3K vs GOR Mahia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	3K	Draw	GOR Mahia
Model	41%	27%	32%
Market	14%	24%	62%
Published	21%	25%	55%
Edge	+7%	+1%	-8%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 1.08.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded 2026-10-16 — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -18.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

3K vs GOR Mahia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on GOR Mahia, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-15.

Opened 1.44Now 1.45 +0.01

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
3K	6.40	6.25	-0.15
Draw	3.75	3.74	-0.01
GOR Mahia	1.44	1.45	+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

3K and GOR Mahia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.083K

1.39GOR Mahia

Total expected goals: 2.47
Attack rating (3K / GOR Mahia): 1.08 / 1.07
Defence rating (3K / GOR Mahia): 1.36 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

3K vs GOR Mahia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.8% 10.5% 8.2% 3.8% 1.8% 1 7.9% 14.0% 8.8% 4.1% 1.9% 2 4.9% 6.8% 4.8% 2.2% 1.0% 3 1.8% 2.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: 3K goals. Columns: GOR Mahia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

3K vs GOR Mahia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 72%

Over 2.5 45%

Over 3.5 24%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for 3K vs GOR Mahia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	3K	21%	4.82
	Draw	25%	4.05
	GOR Mahia	55%	1.83
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55%	1.83
	Under 2.5	45%	2.21
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.70
	No	41%	2.44
Double chance	1X (3K or draw)	45%	2.20
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or GOR Mahia)	79%	1.26
Handicap -1	GOR Mahia win by 2+	21%	4.77
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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