Homeboyz vs KCB preview
In the match between Homeboyz and KCB, the 1X2 probabilities show Homeboyz at 37%, KCB at 34%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% chance. Homeboyz has an expected goals figure of 1.04, while KCB has 1.28, indicating KCB may have the edge in creating chances.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, suggesting a reasonable likelihood of goals from both sides. However, Homeboyz's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, which could impact their performance. KCB, on the other hand, has won 4 of their last 6 games, which may boost their confidence going into this fixture.
Homeboyz vs KCB: model vs market
| Source | Homeboyz | Draw | KCB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Homeboyz and KCB expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Homeboyz / KCB)
- 0.93 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Homeboyz / KCB)
- 1.04 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Homeboyz vs KCB score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Homeboyz goals. Columns: KCB goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Homeboyz vs KCB goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Homeboyz vs KCB
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Homeboyz | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.43 | |
| KCB | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Homeboyz or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or KCB) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Homeboyz win by 2+ | 11% | 8.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Homeboyz and KCB recent form
Homeboyz
1W 3D 2L
KCB
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Homeboyz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
KCB away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Homeboyz at home only, KCB away only.
Homeboyz vs KCB head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Homeboyz 2 · draws 4 · KCB 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | KCB | 1-1 | Homeboyz | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-11-30 | Homeboyz | 1-1 | KCB | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-03-30 | Homeboyz | 2-2 | KCB | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-10-19 | KCB | 4-1 | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-04-27 | KCB | 1-0 | Homeboyz | Shield Cup |
| 2024-02-11 | KCB | 1-2 | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-09-27 | Homeboyz | 0-2 | KCB | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-03-29 | Homeboyz | 0-0 | KCB | FKF Premier League |
| 2022-11-27 | KCB | 0-1 | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth 2026-11-14
- Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- APS Bomet vs Bandari 2026-11-14
- AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Tusker v Shabana — match page 2026-11-15
- Police vs Posta Rangers FC — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United — match page 2026-11-15
- 3K vs GOR Mahia 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Homeboyz, previous: Homeboyz v Police analysis
- Homeboyz, next: Mathare United – Homeboyz, 2026-11-20
- KCB, previous: KCB – APS Bomet, 2026-11-06
- KCB, next: KCB v 3K analysis