Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture, Nairobi United has a 38% chance to win against Mara Sugar, who have a 26% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 16% probability. Nairobi United's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, while Mara Sugar has 2 wins and 3 losses in the same period.

Nairobi United is expected to score 0.99 goals, while Mara Sugar is projected to score 0.76. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 26%, and both teams to score is at 35%. A draw is also a possibility with a 36% chance, which could change the expected outcome of the match.

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nairobi United	Draw	Mara Sugar
Model	38%	36%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	38%	36%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Nairobi United and Mara Sugar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.99Nairobi United

0.76Mara Sugar

Total expected goals: 1.75
Attack rating (Nairobi United / Mara Sugar): 1.19 / 0.84
Defence rating (Nairobi United / Mara Sugar): 0.93 / 0.81

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.6% 11.9% 5.1% 1.3% 0.3% 1 15.8% 14.4% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 2 8.5% 6.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 3 2.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Nairobi United goals. Columns: Mara Sugar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 81%

Over 1.5 54%

Over 2.5 26%

Over 3.5 10%

Both teams to score: 35%
No goals (0–0): 19%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nairobi United	38%	2.61
	Draw	36%	2.80
	Mara Sugar	26%	3.85
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	26%	3.89
	Under 2.5	74%	1.35
Both teams to score	Yes	35%	2.87
	No	65%	1.54
Double chance	1X (Nairobi United or draw)	74%	1.35
	12 (either side)	64%	1.56
	X2 (draw or Mara Sugar)	62%	1.62
Handicap -1	Nairobi United win by 2+	15%	6.59
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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