Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar preview
In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Nairobi United and Mara Sugar, the 1X2 probabilities show Nairobi United at 41%, while Mara Sugar sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Nairobi United's expected goals are 0.98 compared to Mara Sugar's 0.89, indicating a slight edge for the home side.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Nairobi United recording L-D-D-D-W-D and Mara Sugar at D-D-W-D-L-D. The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 36%, and both teams to score is at 44%. This suggests that while Nairobi United may have the upper hand, a lack of scoring from either side could lead to a different outcome than predicted.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar: model vs market
| Source | Nairobi United | Draw | Mara Sugar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 32% | 28% |
| Market | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Published | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.21, recorded — the top price across the 4 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nairobi United, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-15.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi United | 2.20 | 2.20 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 2.89 | 2.88 | -0.01 |
| Mara Sugar | 3.20 | 3.16 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nairobi United and Mara Sugar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.88
- Attack rating (Nairobi United / Mara Sugar)
- 1.24 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Nairobi United / Mara Sugar)
- 1.14 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nairobi United goals. Columns: Mara Sugar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nairobi United | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Mara Sugar | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nairobi United or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Mara Sugar) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nairobi United win by 2+ | 14% | 7.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nairobi United and Mara Sugar recent form
Nairobi United
1W 4D 1L
Mara Sugar
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nairobi United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Mara Sugar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Nairobi United at home only, Mara Sugar away only.
Nairobi United vs Mara Sugar head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Nairobi United 1 · draws 2 · Mara Sugar 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Nairobi United | 1-1 | Mara Sugar | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-10-01 | Mara Sugar | 0-1 | Nairobi United | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-06-01 | Nairobi United | 1-1 | Mara Sugar | Shield Cup |
| 2024-06-02 | Mara Sugar | 1-0 | Nairobi United | Super League |
| 2023-12-16 | Nairobi United | 0-2 | Mara Sugar | Super League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Ulinzi Stars vs Migori Youth 2026-11-14
- APS Bomet vs Bandari 2026-11-14
- AFC Leopards vs Mombasa Elite — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Tusker v Shabana — match page 2026-11-15
- Homeboyz v KCB — match page 2026-11-15
- Police vs Posta Rangers FC — team news & stats 2026-11-15
- Murang'a SEAL v Mathare United — match page 2026-11-15
- 3K vs GOR Mahia 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Nairobi United, previous: GOR Mahia vs Nairobi United prediction
- Nairobi United, next: Nairobi United vs Tusker: odds and pick
- Mara Sugar, previous: Mara Sugar v Migori Youth analysis
- Mara Sugar, next: Shabana v Mara Sugar analysis