Shabana vs Mara Sugar Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Shabana vs Mara Sugar preview

In the match between Shabana and Mara Sugar, the 1X2 probabilities show Shabana at 28%, a draw at 38%, and Mara Sugar at 34%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, which has a 21% probability. This suggests a low-scoring match, supported by expected goals of 0.74 for Shabana and 0.86 for Mara Sugar.

While both teams to score has a 31% chance and Over 2.5 goals is at 22%, the recent form indicates a struggle for both sides. Shabana's last five matches show 2 wins and 3 losses, while Mara Sugar has 1 win and 4 losses. This could lead to fewer goals than anticipated, making the predictions less certain.

Shabana vs Mara Sugar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Shabana	Draw	Mara Sugar
Model	28%	38%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	38%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Shabana and Mara Sugar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.74Shabana

0.86Mara Sugar

Total expected goals: 1.60
Attack rating (Shabana / Mara Sugar): 0.79 / 0.93
Defence rating (Shabana / Mara Sugar): 0.94 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Shabana vs Mara Sugar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 21.5% 16.0% 7.4% 2.1% 0.5% 1 13.7% 14.1% 5.5% 1.6% 0.4% 2 5.6% 4.8% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 3 1.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Shabana goals. Columns: Mara Sugar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Shabana vs Mara Sugar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 79%

Over 1.5 49%

Over 2.5 22%

Over 3.5 8%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 21%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Shabana vs Mara Sugar

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Shabana	28%	3.59
	Draw	38%	2.65
	Mara Sugar	34%	2.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	22%	4.61
	Under 2.5	78%	1.28
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.18
	No	69%	1.46
Double chance	1X (Shabana or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	62%	1.61
	X2 (draw or Mara Sugar)	72%	1.39
Handicap -1	Mara Sugar win by 2+	12%	8.18
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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