Mathare United vs Homeboyz Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Mathare United vs Homeboyz preview

In the Kenyan Premier League fixture between Mathare United and Homeboyz, the 1X2 probabilities show Homeboyz at 36% and Mathare United at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance. Mathare United has an expected goals figure of 0.94, while Homeboyz is slightly higher at 1.05.

Both teams to score has a 41% likelihood, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 32%. Mathare United's recent form includes 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Homeboyz has not won in their last 6. A draw is also a possibility, given the 34% probability. These factors could lead to a different outcome than the model predicts.

Mathare United vs Homeboyz: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mathare United	Draw	Homeboyz
Model	30%	34%	36%
Market	—	—	—
Published	30%	34%	36%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mathare United and Homeboyz expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.94Mathare United

1.05Homeboyz

Total expected goals: 1.99
Attack rating (Mathare United / Homeboyz): 0.88 / 1.06
Defence rating (Mathare United / Homeboyz): 1.01 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mathare United vs Homeboyz score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.0% 13.0% 7.5% 2.6% 0.9% 1 11.5% 14.8% 7.1% 2.5% 0.8% 2 6.1% 6.4% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 3 1.9% 2.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Mathare United goals. Columns: Homeboyz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mathare United vs Homeboyz goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%

Over 1.5 60%

Over 2.5 32%

Over 3.5 14%

Both teams to score: 41%
No goals (0–0): 15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mathare United vs Homeboyz

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mathare United	30%	3.29
	Draw	34%	2.98
	Homeboyz	36%	2.78
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	32%	3.12
	Under 2.5	68%	1.47
Both teams to score	Yes	41%	2.44
	No	59%	1.69
Double chance	1X (Mathare United or draw)	64%	1.56
	12 (either side)	66%	1.51
	X2 (draw or Homeboyz)	70%	1.44
Handicap -1	Homeboyz win by 2+	15%	6.80
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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