Shabana vs Police preview
In the match between Shabana and Police, the 1X2 probabilities show Shabana at 24%, a draw at 44%, and Police at 32%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-0, which occurs 32% of the time.
Both teams have struggled to score, with expected goals of 0.53 for Shabana and 0.66 for Police. The low likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 21% suggests a defensive encounter. Recent form also indicates that Shabana has drawn three of their last five matches, while Police has drawn four. This could lead to a tight match where goals are hard to come by.
Shabana vs Police: model vs market
| Source | Shabana | Draw | Police |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 44% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 44% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Shabana and Police expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.19
- Attack rating (Shabana / Police)
- 0.69 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Shabana / Police)
- 0.75 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Shabana vs Police score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Shabana goals. Columns: Police goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Shabana vs Police goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 21%
- No goals (0–0)
- 32%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Shabana vs Police
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shabana | 24% | 4.21 |
| Draw | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Police | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 12% | 8.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 88% | 1.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 21% | 4.80 |
| No | 79% | 1.26 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Shabana or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| X2 (draw or Police) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Police win by 2+ | 9% | 10.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Shabana and Police recent form
Shabana
1W 4D 1L
Police
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Shabana at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Police away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Shabana at home only, Police away only.
Shabana vs Police head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Shabana 2 · draws 2 · Police 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Shabana | 0-1 | Police | Shield Cup |
| 2026-04-25 | Shabana | 0-0 | Police | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-11-30 | Police | 0-1 | Shabana | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-06-15 | Police | 1-0 | Shabana | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-11-10 | Shabana | 1-0 | Police | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-02-17 | Police | 1-0 | Shabana | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-09-16 | Shabana | 1-1 | Police | FKF Premier League |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Migori Youth v Mombasa Elite — match page 2026-10-31
- AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz 2026-11-01
- APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL 2026-11-01
- Nairobi United vs Bandari 2026-11-01
- GOR Mahia vs KCB — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Ulinzi Stars v Mathare United — match page 2026-11-02
- Posta Rangers FC v 3K — match page 2026-11-02
- Tusker vs Mara Sugar — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Shabana, previous: Shabana vs Migori Youth: odds and pick
- Shabana, next: Mombasa Elite vs Shabana: odds and pick
- Police, previous: Police vs Ulinzi Stars: odds and pick
- Police, next: Homeboyz v Police analysis