Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United Prediction & Betting Tips 02/11/2026

Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United preview

Ulinzi Stars face Mathare United with 1X2 probabilities showing Ulinzi Stars at 32%, a draw at 37%, and Mathare United at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 20%. Both teams to score stands at 33%, while Over 2.5 goals is only 23%.

Both teams have similar expected goals, with Ulinzi Stars at 0.84 and Mathare United at 0.83. Recent form shows Ulinzi Stars with two wins in their last six matches, while Mathare United has won two out of their last six. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome. A low-scoring game may affect predictions for Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Ulinzi Stars	Draw	Mathare United
Model	32%	37%	31%
Market	—	—	—
Published	32%	37%	31%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ulinzi Stars and Mathare United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.84Ulinzi Stars

0.83Mathare United

Total expected goals: 1.67
Attack rating (Ulinzi Stars / Mathare United): 0.90 / 0.94
Defence rating (Ulinzi Stars / Mathare United): 0.92 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 20.2% 14.3% 6.5% 1.8% 0.4% 1 14.5% 14.4% 5.4% 1.5% 0.4% 2 6.6% 5.5% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 3 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Ulinzi Stars goals. Columns: Mathare United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 80%

Over 1.5 51%

Over 2.5 23%

Over 3.5 9%

Both teams to score: 33%
No goals (0–0): 20%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ulinzi Stars vs Mathare United

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Ulinzi Stars	32%	3.16
	Draw	37%	2.70
	Mathare United	31%	3.20
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	23%	4.27
	Under 2.5	77%	1.31
Both teams to score	Yes	33%	3.00
	No	67%	1.50
Double chance	1X (Ulinzi Stars or draw)	69%	1.45
	12 (either side)	63%	1.59
	X2 (draw or Mathare United)	68%	1.46
Handicap -1	Ulinzi Stars win by 2+	11%	9.07
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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