Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite preview
Migori Youth face Mombasa Elite with a 43% chance of winning compared to Mombasa's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 16% of the time according to our model. However, the match could deviate from this prediction if Mombasa Elite improves their form, as they recently recorded a win after three losses and a draw.
Migori Youth has an expected goals figure of 1.12, while Mombasa Elite sits at 0.74. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 29%, and both teams to score stands at 37%. Given the recent form of both teams and their head-to-head record, where Migori Youth has 4 wins in the last 9 encounters, the match could still surprise.
Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite: model vs market
| Source | Migori Youth | Draw | Mombasa Elite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 34% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 34% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.12 vs 0.74.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Migori Youth and Mombasa Elite expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.86
- Attack rating (Migori Youth / Mombasa Elite)
- 0.88 / 0.88
- Defence rating (Migori Youth / Mombasa Elite)
- 0.88 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Migori Youth goals. Columns: Mombasa Elite goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Migori Youth | 43% | 2.33 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Mombasa Elite | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.73 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Migori Youth or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| X2 (draw or Mombasa Elite) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Migori Youth win by 2+ | 19% | 5.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Migori Youth and Mombasa Elite recent form
Migori Youth
0W 3D 0L
Mombasa Elite
1W 1D 3L
Last 3 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Migori Youth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Mombasa Elite away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Migori Youth at home only, Mombasa Elite away only.
Migori Youth vs Mombasa Elite head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Migori Youth 4 · draws 3 · Mombasa Elite 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Mombasa Elite | 0-0 | Migori Youth | Super League |
| 2025-12-12 | Migori Youth | 3-2 | Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| 2025-04-19 | Mombasa Elite | 4-1 | Migori Youth | Super League |
| 2025-01-26 | Migori Youth | 0-1 | Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| 2024-03-10 | Migori Youth | 0-0 | Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| 2023-11-19 | Mombasa Elite | 2-4 | Migori Youth | Super League |
| 2023-04-30 | Migori Youth | 2-1 | Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| 2023-01-07 | Mombasa Elite | 1-1 | Migori Youth | Super League |
| 2022-07-02 | Migori Youth | 4-0 | Mombasa Elite | Super League |
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Before and after this match
- Migori Youth, previous: Shabana vs Migori Youth: odds and pick
- Migori Youth, next: Mara Sugar v Migori Youth analysis
- Mombasa Elite, previous: KCB v Mombasa Elite analysis
- Mombasa Elite, next: Mombasa Elite vs Shabana: odds and pick