Tusker vs Mara Sugar Prediction & Betting Tips 02/11/2026

Tusker vs Mara Sugar preview

In the upcoming match between Tusker and Mara Sugar, the 1X2 probabilities show Tusker at 28%, a draw at 40%, and Mara Sugar at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 24% chance. Both teams have struggled to score, with expected goals of 0.71 for Tusker and 0.77 for Mara Sugar, suggesting a low-scoring affair.

While both teams to score stands at 28%, and Over 2.5 goals is only 19%, recent form indicates potential for surprises. Tusker's last five matches include two draws and three losses, while Mara Sugar has drawn four of their last six. This inconsistency could lead to unexpected outcomes, despite the statistical predictions.

Tusker vs Mara Sugar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Tusker	Draw	Mara Sugar
Model	28%	40%	32%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	40%	32%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Tusker and Mara Sugar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.71Tusker

0.77Mara Sugar

Total expected goals: 1.48
Attack rating (Tusker / Mara Sugar): 0.89 / 0.82
Defence rating (Tusker / Mara Sugar): 0.98 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tusker vs Mara Sugar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 24.1% 16.3% 6.7% 1.7% 0.4% 1 14.9% 13.7% 4.8% 1.2% 0.3% 2 5.7% 4.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 3 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Tusker goals. Columns: Mara Sugar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tusker vs Mara Sugar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 76%

Over 1.5 45%

Over 2.5 19%

Over 3.5 6%

Both teams to score: 28%
No goals (0–0): 24%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tusker vs Mara Sugar

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Tusker	28%	3.51
	Draw	40%	2.53
	Mara Sugar	32%	3.13
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	19%	5.39
	Under 2.5	81%	1.23
Both teams to score	Yes	28%	3.51
	No	72%	1.40
Double chance	1X (Tusker or draw)	68%	1.47
	12 (either side)	60%	1.65
	X2 (draw or Mara Sugar)	72%	1.40
Handicap -1	Mara Sugar win by 2+	10%	9.56
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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