AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz preview
AFC Leopards face Homeboyz with a 40% probability for a home win and a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 17%. The expected goals show AFC Leopards at 1.00 and Homeboyz at 0.71, indicating a potential struggle for the visitors to find the net.
However, the recent form reveals AFC Leopards with two draws and a win in their last five matches, while Homeboyz have only one win in their last six. With 33% for both teams to score and 24% for Over 2.5 goals, the match could still see surprises if Homeboyz improve their attacking performance. The confidence grade is C, suggesting caution in predictions.
AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz: model vs market
| Source | AFC Leopards | Draw | Homeboyz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 36% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 36% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
AFC Leopards and Homeboyz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.71
- Attack rating (AFC Leopards / Homeboyz)
- 0.93 / 0.93
- Defence rating (AFC Leopards / Homeboyz)
- 0.79 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AFC Leopards goals. Columns: Homeboyz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Leopards | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Homeboyz | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24% | 4.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.00 |
| No | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AFC Leopards or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| X2 (draw or Homeboyz) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | AFC Leopards win by 2+ | 16% | 6.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AFC Leopards and Homeboyz recent form
AFC Leopards
1W 3D 2L
Homeboyz
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AFC Leopards at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
Homeboyz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: AFC Leopards at home only, Homeboyz away only.
AFC Leopards vs Homeboyz head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: AFC Leopards 2 · draws 3 · Homeboyz 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Homeboyz | 1-2 | AFC Leopards | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2026-01-04 | AFC Leopards | 0-1 | Homeboyz | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-04-05 | AFC Leopards | 1-2 | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-12-07 | Homeboyz | 1-1 | AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| 2024-02-18 | Homeboyz | 0-0 | AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-12-17 | AFC Leopards | 2-0 | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| 2023-05-20 | Homeboyz | 2-1 | AFC Leopards | Shield Cup |
| 2023-04-16 | Homeboyz | 2-0 | AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| 2022-12-21 | AFC Leopards | 0-0 | Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Migori Youth v Mombasa Elite — match page 2026-10-31
- Shabana vs Police — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL 2026-11-01
- Nairobi United vs Bandari 2026-11-01
- GOR Mahia vs KCB — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Ulinzi Stars v Mathare United — match page 2026-11-02
- Posta Rangers FC v 3K — match page 2026-11-02
- Tusker vs Mara Sugar — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- AFC Leopards, previous: Mara Sugar – AFC Leopards, 2026-10-28
- AFC Leopards, next: 3K – AFC Leopards, 2026-11-07
- Homeboyz, previous: Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia prediction
- Homeboyz, next: Homeboyz v Police analysis