APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL preview
In the match between APS Bomet and Murang'a SEAL, the 1X2 probabilities show APS Bomet at 62%, while Murang'a SEAL sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with APS Bomet's expected goals of 1.95 compared to Murang'a SEAL's 0.86.
However, APS Bomet has not won against Murang'a SEAL in their last two encounters, both of which ended in victories for Murang'a SEAL. This historical trend could impact the outcome, especially since both teams to score stands at 51% and Over 2.5 goals is at 53%. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.
APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL: model vs market
| Source | APS Bomet | Draw | Murang'a SEAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 0.86.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
APS Bomet and Murang'a SEAL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (APS Bomet / Murang'a SEAL)
- 1.21 / 1.63
- Defence rating (APS Bomet / Murang'a SEAL)
- 0.55 / 1.56
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: APS Bomet goals. Columns: Murang'a SEAL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | APS Bomet | 62% | 1.62 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Murang'a SEAL | 15% | 6.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (APS Bomet or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Murang'a SEAL) | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | APS Bomet win by 2+ | 38% | 2.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
APS Bomet and Murang'a SEAL recent form
APS Bomet
2W 3D 1L
Murang'a SEAL
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
APS Bomet at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
Murang'a SEAL away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: APS Bomet at home only, Murang'a SEAL away only.
APS Bomet vs Murang'a SEAL head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: APS Bomet 1 · draws 1 · Murang'a SEAL 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Murang'a SEAL | 2-1 | APS Bomet | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2025-09-28 | APS Bomet | 0-2 | Murang'a SEAL | Kenyan Premier League |
| 2022-07-24 | APS Bomet | 1-1 | Murang'a SEAL | Super League |
| 2022-02-05 | Murang'a SEAL | 1-2 | APS Bomet | Super League |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
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- Ulinzi Stars v Mathare United — match page 2026-11-02
- Posta Rangers FC v 3K — match page 2026-11-02
- Tusker vs Mara Sugar — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- APS Bomet, previous: APS Bomet vs 3K prediction
- APS Bomet, next: KCB – APS Bomet, 2026-11-06
- Murang'a SEAL, previous: Murang'a SEAL v Nairobi United analysis
- Murang'a SEAL, next: Murang'a SEAL vs Ulinzi Stars prediction