Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia Prediction & Betting Tips 28/10/2026

Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia preview

In the upcoming match between Homeboyz and GOR Mahia, the 1X2 probabilities show Homeboyz at 37%, GOR Mahia at 33%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-0 in favor of Homeboyz, occurring with a 10% probability.

Both teams to score has a 50% chance, while Over 2.5 goals sits at 44%. Homeboyz has an expected goals figure of 1.25, slightly higher than GOR Mahia's 1.17. Recent form indicates Homeboyz has struggled with D-W-D-D-L-L, while GOR Mahia has performed better with W-W-L-L-L-D. However, GOR Mahia has won both of their last two head-to-head encounters, which could influence the outcome.

Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Homeboyz	Draw	GOR Mahia
Model	37%	30%	33%
Market	—	—	—
Published	37%	30%	33%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Homeboyz and GOR Mahia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Homeboyz

1.17GOR Mahia

Total expected goals: 2.42
Attack rating (Homeboyz / GOR Mahia): 1.04 / 1.14
Defence rating (Homeboyz / GOR Mahia): 1.04 / 1.16

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 9.1% 6.0% 2.3% 0.9% 1 9.9% 14.3% 7.6% 2.9% 1.1% 2 7.0% 8.2% 4.8% 1.8% 0.7% 3 2.9% 3.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Homeboyz goals. Columns: GOR Mahia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 50%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Homeboyz vs GOR Mahia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Homeboyz	37%	2.70
	Draw	30%	3.32
	GOR Mahia	33%	3.05
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.30
	Under 2.5	56%	1.77
Both teams to score	Yes	50%	1.98
	No	50%	2.02
Double chance	1X (Homeboyz or draw)	67%	1.49
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or GOR Mahia)	63%	1.59
Handicap -1	Homeboyz win by 2+	17%	5.94
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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