Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards Prediction & Betting Tips 28/10/2026

Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards preview

Mara Sugar faces AFC Leopards with 33% chances of a home win and 34% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 11% of the time in our model. Both teams to score stands at 45%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides.

Mara Sugar's recent form shows W-D-L-D-L-W, while AFC Leopards has W-D-L-L-W-W. The expected goals are close, with Mara Sugar at 1.06 and AFC Leopards at 1.08. A draw is also a possibility at 32%, but the recent form and head-to-head record, with each team winning once, suggest a competitive match.

Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Mara Sugar	Draw	AFC Leopards
Model	33%	32%	34%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	32%	34%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Mara Sugar and AFC Leopards expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.06Mara Sugar

1.08AFC Leopards

Total expected goals: 2.14
Attack rating (Mara Sugar / AFC Leopards): 1.00 / 1.21
Defence rating (Mara Sugar / AFC Leopards): 0.91 / 1.02

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.1% 11.3% 6.9% 2.5% 0.8% 1 11.1% 14.8% 7.3% 2.6% 0.9% 2 6.6% 7.1% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 3 2.3% 2.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Mara Sugar goals. Columns: AFC Leopards goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 64%

Over 2.5 36%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Mara Sugar	33%	3.00
	Draw	32%	3.10
	AFC Leopards	34%	2.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	36%	2.76
	Under 2.5	64%	1.57
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.24
	No	55%	1.80
Double chance	1X (Mara Sugar or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	68%	1.48
	X2 (draw or AFC Leopards)	67%	1.50
Handicap -1	AFC Leopards win by 2+	14%	7.04
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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