Atlético Ottawa vs Forge: model vs market
| Source | Atlético Ottawa | Draw | Forge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | 17% | 22% | 61% |
| Published | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Edge | +10% | +6% | -16% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.16.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Forge, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Ottawa | 3.75 | 5.28 | +1.53 |
| Draw | 3.67 | 4.10 | +0.43 |
| Forge | 1.80 | 1.49 | -0.31 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atlético Ottawa and Forge expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Atlético Ottawa / Forge)
- 0.97 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Atlético Ottawa / Forge)
- 0.89 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlético Ottawa goals. Columns: Forge goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlético Ottawa vs Forge
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Ottawa | 20% | 5.07 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Forge | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlético Ottawa or draw) | 43% | 2.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Forge) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win by 2+ | 23% | 4.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atlético Ottawa and Forge recent form
Atlético Ottawa
3W 1D 2L
Forge
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atlético Ottawa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.85
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Forge away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 16 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atlético Ottawa at home only, Forge away only.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Atlético Ottawa 3 · draws 3 · Forge 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Forge | 3-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-24 | Atlético Ottawa | 2-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-04-04 | Forge | 2-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-10-26 | Forge | 1-2 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-09-21 | Atlético Ottawa | 1-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-08-17 | Forge | 2-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-07-12 | Atlético Ottawa | 1-1 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-05-13 | Forge | 2-2 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-11-02 | Forge | 1-0 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-10-12 | Forge | 0-2 | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Atlético Ottawa, previous: Pacific FC v Atlético Ottawa analysis
- Forge, previous: Forge vs York United: odds and pick