Forge vs York United: model vs market
| Source | Forge | Draw | York United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 19% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 64% | 19% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.38.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Forge and York United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.02
- Attack rating (Forge / York United)
- 1.05 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Forge / York United)
- 0.82 / 1.45
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Forge vs York United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Forge goals. Columns: York United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Forge vs York United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Forge vs York United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.35 | |
| York United | 18% | 5.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Forge or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or York United) | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win by 2+ | 44% | 2.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Forge and York United recent form
Forge
1W 4D 1L
York United
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Forge at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 12
- They have won 14 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-5
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Forge at home only, York United away only.
Forge vs York United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Forge 6 · draws 4 · York United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Forge | 1-1 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-07-26 | York United | 1-3 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-06-07 | York United | 1-4 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-10-18 | Forge | 3-0 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-08-09 | York United | 1-2 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-06-29 | Forge | 2-2 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-04-27 | York United | 2-2 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-09-28 | Forge | 2-0 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-08-24 | York United | 0-0 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-06-01 | Forge | 3-0 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- York United v Supra du Quebec — match page 2026-10-07
- Forge vs Pacific FC 2026-10-07
- Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa 2026-10-11
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-10-12