Updated

Canadian Premier League · Group Stage

Forge vs York United

· Tim Hortons Field, Hamilton· Referee A. Ruch

Full time5 – 0

Alin prediction was Forge to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ForgeDrawYork United

Forge vs York United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceForgeDrawYork United
Model69%17%14%
Market67%19%14%
Published68%18%14%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 1.25.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Forge vs York United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Forge, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.36Now 1.35 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Forge1.361.35-0.01
Draw4.904.86-0.04
York United6.706.53-0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Forge and York United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.77Forge
1.25York United
Total expected goals
4.02
Attack rating (Forge / York United)
1.15 / 1.23
Defence rating (Forge / York United)
0.77 / 1.40

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Forge vs York United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.4% 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 1 4.4% 6.8% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7% 2 6.9% 8.6% 5.4% 2.2% 0.9% 3 6.4% 8.0% 5.0% 2.1% 0.8% 4+ 8.6% 10.8% 6.7% 2.8% 1.2%

Rows: Forge goals. Columns: York United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Forge vs York United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 57%
Both teams to score
68%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Forge vs York United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Forge68%1.48
Draw18%5.45
York United14%7.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.31
Under 2.524%4.25
Both teams to scoreYes68%1.48
No32%3.08
Double chance1X (Forge or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or York United)32%3.09
Handicap -1Forge win by 2+49%2.04
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Forge and York United recent form

Forge 2W 4D 0L
York United 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Forge at home

Record (W-D-L)
9-3-1
Win rate
69%
Goals for / match
1.77
Goals against / match
0.69
Clean sheets
8 of 13
  • They have won 15 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

York United away

Record (W-D-L)
1-6-5
Win rate
8%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.17
Clean sheets
1 of 12
  • They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Forge at home only, York United away only.

Expected lineups

Forge lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 36 Dino Bontis
  2. 3 M. Jevremović
  3. 8 A. Batisse
  4. 5 D. Nimick
  5. 24 R. Rama
  6. 23 A. Aromatario
  7. 22 N. Jensen
  8. 11 N. Ampomah
  9. 90 L. Cavallini
  10. 87 M. Bourgeois

Bench: D. Krutzen, B. Paton, I. Oketokoun, L. Johnson, T. Borges, A. Sadek

York United lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 17 Campos Ralston Kai Antonio
  2. 4 O. León
  3. 3 L. Singh
  4. 6 R. López
  5. 23 J. Córdova
  6. 21 K. Kibato
  7. 7 S. Yeates
  8. 16 M. Ferrari
  9. 11 J. Almagro
  10. 10 O. Bassett
  11. 39 B. Badibanga

Bench: C. Guzmán, S. Gonzales, I. Pavela, L. Accettola, Shola Jimoh, C. Onyeocha, K. Clarke

Forge vs York United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Forge 6 · draws 4 · York United 0.

ForgeDrawsYork United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-05Forge1-1York UnitedCanadian Premier League
2026-07-26York United1-3ForgeCanadian Premier League
2026-06-07York United1-4ForgeCanadian Premier League
2025-10-18Forge3-0York UnitedCanadian Premier League
2025-08-09York United1-2ForgeCanadian Premier League
2025-06-29Forge2-2York UnitedCanadian Premier League
2025-04-27York United2-2ForgeCanadian Premier League
2024-09-28Forge2-0York UnitedCanadian Premier League
2024-08-24York United0-0ForgeCanadian Premier League
2024-06-01Forge3-0York UnitedCanadian Premier League

Before and after this match