Supra du Quebec vs York United preview
In the Canadian Premier League fixture between Supra du Quebec and York United, the 1X2 probabilities show Supra du Quebec at 55%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (7%). The model indicates a strong possibility for Over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams to score at 79%.
While Supra du Quebec has won 2 of the last 3 head-to-head matches, their recent form shows inconsistency with 2 wins and 4 losses in the last 6 games. York United has a mixed record with 3 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw in their recent matches. This could impact the expected goals of 2.66 for Supra du Quebec and 1.85 for York United, making the outcome less predictable.
Supra du Quebec vs York United: model vs market
| Source | Supra du Quebec | Draw | York United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 19% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 19% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Supra du Quebec and York United expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.51
- Attack rating (Supra du Quebec / York United)
- 1.09 / 1.23
- Defence rating (Supra du Quebec / York United)
- 1.14 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Supra du Quebec vs York United score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Supra du Quebec goals. Columns: York United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Supra du Quebec vs York United goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Supra du Quebec vs York United
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Supra du Quebec | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.18 | |
| York United | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.27 |
| No | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Supra du Quebec or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or York United) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Supra du Quebec win by 2+ | 36% | 2.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Supra du Quebec and York United recent form
Supra du Quebec
3W 0D 3L
York United
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Supra du Quebec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.42
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York United away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-5
- Win rate
- 8%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Supra du Quebec at home only, York United away only.
Supra du Quebec vs York United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Supra du Quebec 2 · draws 1 · York United 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | York United | 1-2 | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-08-23 | York United | 1-1 | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-29 | Supra du Quebec | 3-1 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa 2026-10-11
- Forge v York United — match page 2026-10-12
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Supra du Quebec, previous: Supra du Quebec – Vancouver FC, 2026-10-10
- York United, previous: Forge vs York United: odds and pick