Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC preview
In the match between Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Vancouver FC at 46% and HFX Wanderers FC at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 2.02 for Vancouver FC and 1.66 for HFX Wanderers FC.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 71%, indicating a strong likelihood of an open game. However, Vancouver FC's recent form of D-D-D-L-W-L could impact their performance, while HFX Wanderers FC's recent results show D-L-W-W-L-L. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome could be less predictable than the numbers suggest.
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC: model vs market
| Source | Vancouver FC | Draw | HFX Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.66.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.69
- Attack rating (Vancouver FC / HFX Wanderers FC)
- 1.01 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Vancouver FC / HFX Wanderers FC)
- 1.04 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Vancouver FC goals. Columns: HFX Wanderers FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vancouver FC | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| HFX Wanderers FC | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Vancouver FC or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or HFX Wanderers FC) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Vancouver FC win by 2+ | 27% | 3.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Vancouver FC and HFX Wanderers FC recent form
Vancouver FC
1W 3D 2L
HFX Wanderers FC
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Vancouver FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-3
- Win rate
- 46%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.15
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HFX Wanderers FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-7
- Win rate
- 23%
- Goals for / match
- 1.46
- Goals against / match
- 1.77
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 13
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Vancouver FC at home only, HFX Wanderers FC away only.
Vancouver FC vs HFX Wanderers FC head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Vancouver FC 2 · draws 0 · HFX Wanderers FC 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1-0 | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-30 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1-0 | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-04-04 | Vancouver FC | 0-1 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-09-28 | Vancouver FC | 3-1 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-08-04 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1-2 | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-06-21 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1-0 | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-05-18 | Vancouver FC | 0-2 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa 2026-10-11
- Forge v York United — match page 2026-10-12
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Supra du Quebec vs York United 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Vancouver FC, previous: Supra du Quebec – Vancouver FC, 2026-10-10
- HFX Wanderers FC, previous: HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC prediction