HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC: model vs market
| Source | HFX Wanderers FC | Draw | Cavalry FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.71.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.73
- Attack rating (HFX Wanderers FC / Cavalry FC)
- 1.21 / 1.32
- Defence rating (HFX Wanderers FC / Cavalry FC)
- 1.16 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: HFX Wanderers FC goals. Columns: Cavalry FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HFX Wanderers FC | 32% | 3.11 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Cavalry FC | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Double chance | 1X (HFX Wanderers FC or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Cavalry FC) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cavalry FC win by 2+ | 26% | 3.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC recent form
HFX Wanderers FC
2W 1D 3L
Cavalry FC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
HFX Wanderers FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-5
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.58
- Goals against / match
- 1.58
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cavalry FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-4
- Win rate
- 54%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.92
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 16 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: HFX Wanderers FC at home only, Cavalry FC away only.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: HFX Wanderers FC 1 · draws 3 · Cavalry FC 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1-3 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-07-18 | Cavalry FC | 1-1 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-06-06 | Cavalry FC | 2-0 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-09-13 | Cavalry FC | 3-1 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-08-09 | Cavalry FC | 0-0 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-06-14 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1-1 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-05-10 | HFX Wanderers FC | 0-3 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-10-12 | Cavalry FC | 2-1 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-08-10 | Cavalry FC | 3-2 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-07-01 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1-0 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Forge vs Pacific FC 2026-10-07
- Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa 2026-10-11
- Forge v York United — match page 2026-10-12