Updated

Canadian Premier League · Group Stage

HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC

· Wanderers Grounds, Halifax· Referee S. Bowman

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Cavalry FC to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
HFX Wanderers FCDrawCavalry FC

HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHFX Wanderers FCDrawCavalry FC
Model32%23%45%
Market24%24%52%
Published26%24%51%
Edge+2%0%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.71.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cavalry FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.73Now 1.74 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
HFX Wanderers FC3.913.85-0.06
Draw3.783.79+0.01
Cavalry FC1.731.74+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71HFX Wanderers FC
2.02Cavalry FC
Total expected goals
3.73
Attack rating (HFX Wanderers FC / Cavalry FC)
1.21 / 1.32
Defence rating (HFX Wanderers FC / Cavalry FC)
1.15 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 4.0% 4.9% 3.3% 2.6% 1 3.3% 9.1% 8.4% 5.6% 4.5% 2 3.5% 7.1% 7.2% 4.8% 3.9% 3 2.0% 4.1% 4.1% 2.7% 2.2% 4+ 1.3% 2.5% 2.6% 1.7% 1.4%

Rows: HFX Wanderers FC goals. Columns: Cavalry FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
72%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2HFX Wanderers FC26%3.89
Draw24%4.21
Cavalry FC51%1.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.58
Both teams to scoreYes72%1.39
No28%3.56
Double chance1X (HFX Wanderers FC or draw)49%2.02
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Cavalry FC)74%1.35
Handicap -1Cavalry FC win by 2+26%3.89
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

HFX Wanderers FC and Cavalry FC recent form

HFX Wanderers FC 2W 1D 3L
Cavalry FC 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

HFX Wanderers FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-5
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.58
Goals against / match
1.58
Clean sheets
3 of 12
  • They have won 7 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cavalry FC away

Record (W-D-L)
7-2-4
Win rate
54%
Goals for / match
1.62
Goals against / match
0.92
Clean sheets
5 of 13
  • They have won 16 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 25 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: HFX Wanderers FC at home only, Cavalry FC away only.

Expected lineups

HFX Wanderers FC lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 M. Carducci
  2. 7 R. Telfer
  3. 16 Kareem Sow
  4. 26 T. Meilleur-Giguère
  5. 21 Jefferson Alphonse
  6. 25 Liam Mackenzie
  7. 5 L. Olguin
  8. 6 L. Callegari
  9. 23 Miguel Arilla
  10. 14 J. Bahamboula
  11. 8 I. Johnston

Bench: Y. Baï, A. Reid, S. Astridge, A. Rampersad, Tavio Ciccarelli, S. Zitman, N. Pierre

Cavalry FC lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 29 N. Ingham
  2. 5 B. Kamdem
  3. 55 A. Didic
  4. 4 D. Klomp
  5. 16 A. Pearlman
  6. 24 E. Kobza
  7. 8 H. Paton
  8. 17 N. Edwards
  9. 14 C. Elva
  10. 7 A. Musse
  11. 9 T. Warschewski

Bench: C. Ofori, M. Henry, Robert Owen Antoniuk, G. Ntignee, N. Myroniuk, Owen Graham-Roache

HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: HFX Wanderers FC 1 · draws 3 · Cavalry FC 6.

HFX Wanderers FCDrawsCavalry FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-07HFX Wanderers FC1-3Cavalry FCCanadian Premier League
2026-07-18Cavalry FC1-1HFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League
2026-06-06Cavalry FC2-0HFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League
2025-09-13Cavalry FC3-1HFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League
2025-08-09Cavalry FC0-0HFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League
2025-06-14HFX Wanderers FC1-1Cavalry FCCanadian Premier League
2025-05-10HFX Wanderers FC0-3Cavalry FCCanadian Premier League
2024-10-12Cavalry FC2-1HFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League
2024-08-10Cavalry FC3-2HFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League
2024-07-01HFX Wanderers FC1-0Cavalry FCCanadian Premier League

Before and after this match