Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC Prediction & Betting Tips 17/10/2026

Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC preview

Cavalry FC faces Pacific FC with a strong 82% probability of winning, while Pacific FC sits at just 7%. The most likely scoreline is 3-0, with a 9% chance. Our model predicts 79% for Over 2.5 goals, indicating a high-scoring match, but there's a 59% chance that both teams will score, which could challenge that outcome.

Cavalry FC's expected goals stand at 3.29 compared to Pacific FC's 0.94, reflecting a significant disparity in attacking potential. Recent form shows Cavalry FC with two losses followed by three matches without defeat, while Pacific FC has struggled with two losses and only one win in their last six games. This context could affect the match dynamics, despite the strong statistical backing for Cavalry FC.

Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Cavalry FC	Draw	Pacific FC
Model	80%	13%	7%
Market	78%	15%	8%
Published	78%	14%	8%
Edge	+2%	-2%	-1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.12 vs 0.90.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Cavalry FC below the model: +2.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.20, recorded 2026-10-17 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cavalry FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.14Now 1.16 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Cavalry FC	1.14	1.16	+0.02
Draw	7.00	6.21	-0.79
Pacific FC	13.00	11.75	-1.25

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cavalry FC and Pacific FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.12Cavalry FC

0.90Pacific FC

Total expected goals: 4.02
Attack rating (Cavalry FC / Pacific FC): 1.30 / 0.78
Defence rating (Cavalry FC / Pacific FC): 0.88 / 1.38

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.3% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 1 5.1% 5.5% 2.3% 0.7% 0.2% 2 8.7% 7.9% 3.6% 1.1% 0.3% 3 9.1% 8.2% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 15.4% 13.9% 6.3% 1.9% 0.5%

Rows: Cavalry FC goals. Columns: Pacific FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 92%

Over 2.5 77%

Over 3.5 57%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Cavalry FC	78%	1.28
	Draw	14%	7.11
	Pacific FC	8%	13.32
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	77%	1.31
	Under 2.5	23%	4.26
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.74
	No	43%	2.35
Double chance	1X (Cavalry FC or draw)	92%	1.08
	12 (either side)	86%	1.16
	X2 (draw or Pacific FC)	22%	4.63
Handicap -1	Cavalry FC win by 2+	63%	1.60
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Cavalry FC and Pacific FC recent form

Cavalry FC 2W 2D 2L

Pacific FC 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cavalry FC at home

Record (W-D-L): 9-3-0
Win rate: 75%
Goals for / match: 2.50
Goals against / match: 0.58
Clean sheets: 5 of 12

They have won 16 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Pacific FC away

Record (W-D-L): 1-5-7
Win rate: 8%
Goals for / match: 1.23
Goals against / match: 2.54
Clean sheets: 1 of 13

They have won 2 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cavalry FC at home only, Pacific FC away only.

Expected lineups

Cavalry FC lineup · 4-2-3-1

29 N. Ingham
5 B. Kamdem
55 A. Didic
4 D. Klomp
16 A. Pearlman
6 M. Baldisimo
28 N. Myroniuk
20 G. Ntignee
9 T. Warschewski
7 A. Musse
14 C. Elva

Bench: L. Laing, N. Edwards, M. Henry, Robert Owen Antoniuk, J. Holliday, J. McGlinchey, Owen Graham-Roache

Pacific FC lineup · 4-2-3-1

1 E. Himaras
4 D. Konincks
5 J. Quintana
7 K. Chung
66 R. Juhmi
16 T. Gomulka
37 M. Vales
8 A. Daniels
10 M. Bustos
27 R. Kratt

Bench: L. Browning-Lagerfeldt, A. Díaz, J. Belluz, C. Greco-Taylor, M. Edwards, S. Melvin, Y. Toualy

Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Cavalry FC 8 · draws 1 · Pacific FC 1.

80% 10% 10%

Cavalry FCDrawsPacific FC

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-09-13	Pacific FC	0-1	Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
2026-05-24	Cavalry FC	3-0	Pacific FC	Canadian Premier League
2026-05-09	Pacific FC	1-3	Cavalry FC	Canadian Championship
2026-04-05	Pacific FC	1-2	Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
2025-10-05	Pacific FC	3-3	Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
2025-08-04	Pacific FC	1-0	Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
2025-06-22	Cavalry FC	1-0	Pacific FC	Canadian Premier League
2025-05-17	Cavalry FC	4-0	Pacific FC	Canadian Premier League
2024-10-05	Pacific FC	1-4	Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
2024-08-24	Cavalry FC	1-0	Pacific FC	Canadian Premier League

Other Group Stage fixtures

Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC — team news & stats 2026-10-10
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa 2026-10-11
Forge v York United — match page 2026-10-12
HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Supra du Quebec vs York United 2026-10-16
Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC — match page 2026-10-17
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge — team news & stats 2026-10-17

Before and after this match

Cavalry FC, previous: HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC prediction
Pacific FC, previous: Pacific FC v Atlético Ottawa analysis

Prediction snapshot Cavalry FC to win Predicted score 3 – 0 C Bet on Cavalry FC